Today / Iceland - 2. Deild / Fjolnir vs Thróttur Vogar

Fjolnir vs Thróttur Vogar Prediction— Iceland - 2. Deild

Matchday 21 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 14:00

Fjolnir

PPG 1.89 · HOME

LAST 5

DWLLL

UPCOMING

Thróttur Vogar

PPG 0.00 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWLLL

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5 75% chance

Model probability 77.9% vs bookmaker-implied 74.1% — a real, if thin, edge.

+5.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.6%0-11.9%0-21.1%0-30.4%0-4+0.2%1 1-04.8%1-15.6%1-23.3%1-31.3%1-4+0.5%2 2-07.0%2-18.3%2-24.9%2-31.9%2-4+0.7%3 3-06.9%3-18.1%3-24.8%3-31.9%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-010.5%4+-112.3%4+-27.3%4+-32.8%4+-4+1.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 63.9% 58.8% 1.70 +8.6%

Draw 15.4% 25.6% 3.90 -24.0%

Away win 20.7% 28.6% 3.50 -16.5%

Over 2.5 68.4% 78.1% 1.28 -12.4%

Over 3.5 49.4% 63.3% 1.58 -21.9%

BTTS 63.5% 80.0% 1.25 -20.6%

Home O1.5 77.9% 74.1% 1.35 +5.2%

Away O1.5 33.2% 53.8% 1.86 -38.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 58 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 59%

O2.5 74%

BTTS 69%

Score Hit 41%

ROI 5.2%

Bet Hit 70%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 65%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.9 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob63.5%

H 64% / xG 2.9-1.2 / O2.5 68% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 8.3%

#2 3–1 8.1%

#3 2–0 7.0%

#4 1–1 5.6%

#5 3–0 6.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Fjolnir2.9

Thróttur Vogar1.2

COMBINED 4.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 68.4% · O3.5 PROB 49.4%

Form & verdict PPG

FJOLNIR · PPG 1.89

THRÓTTUR VOGAR · PPG 0.00

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

Chance this pick lands

75%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +1.76 for Home, form 1.89 vs 0.00 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Fjolnir (H) 63.9%

ODDS 1.70 · IMPLIED 58.8% EV +8.6%

Draw 15.4%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV -24.0%

Thróttur Vogar (A) 20.7%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -16.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Fjolnir face Thróttur Vogar in Iceland - 2. Deild on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Fjolnir a 64% chance, the draw 15% and Thróttur Vogar 21%, so Fjolnir are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.9 for Fjolnir and 1.2 for Thróttur Vogar (4.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 68% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Fjolnir are averaging 1.89 points per game versus 0.00 for Thróttur Vogar. The best value bet our model finds is TT_HomeO25, with an expected value of +16.8%.

Fjolnir vs Thróttur Vogar Prediction— Iceland - 2. Deild

Match Preview & Prediction

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