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Alingsås W vs Linköping W Prediction— Sweden - Elitettan

Matchday 17 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 14:00

Alingsås W

PPG 0.88 · HOME

LAST 5

DDLWD

UPCOMING

Linköping W

PPG 2.50 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWWWL

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 53.1% vs bookmaker-implied 75.2%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.1%0-115.1%0-212.5%0-36.9%0-4+4.2%1 1-06.7%1-111.1%1-29.2%1-35.1%1-4+3.1%2 2-02.5%2-14.1%2-23.4%2-31.9%2-4+1.1%3 3-00.6%3-11.0%3-20.8%3-30.5%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.2%4+-20.2%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 23.2% 14.3% 7.00 +37.4%

Draw 23.8% 21.7% 4.60 +5.7%

Away win 53.1% 75.2% 1.33 -29.4%

Over 2.5 50.6% 68.0% 1.47 -25.6%

Over 3.5 28.7% 45.9% 2.18 -22.5%

BTTS 50.0% 58.5% 1.71 -14.5%

Home O1.5 30.8% — — —

Away O1.5 47.9% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 49 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 55%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 45%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 27%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)0.7 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob50.0%

A 53% / xG 0.7-1.7 / U2.5 51% / BTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–1 15.1%

#2 0–2 12.5%

#3 1–1 11.1%

#4 0–0 9.1%

#5 1–2 9.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Alingsås W0.7

Linköping W1.7

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.6% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

ALINGSÅS W · PPG 0.88

LINKÖPING W · PPG 2.50

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

65%

DANGER

xG gap -0.92 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Alingsås W (H) 23.2%

ODDS 7.00 · IMPLIED 14.3% EV +37.4%

Draw 23.8%

ODDS 4.60 · IMPLIED 21.7% EV +5.7%

Linköping W (A) 53.1%

ODDS 1.33 · IMPLIED 75.2% EV -29.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Alingsås W face Linköping W in Sweden - Elitettan on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Alingsås W a 23% chance, the draw 24% and Linköping W 53%, so Linköping W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.7 for Alingsås W and 1.7 for Linköping W (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Alingsås W are averaging 0.88 points per game versus 2.50 for Linköping W.

Alingsås W vs Linköping W Prediction— Sweden - Elitettan

Match Preview & Prediction

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