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Jitex W vs Gamla Upsala W Prediction— Sweden - Elitettan

Matchday 17 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 11:00

Jitex W

PPG 1.11 · HOME

LAST 5

WLLDL

UPCOMING

Gamla Upsala W

PPG 1.14 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDLLL

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 55.9% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.6%0-18.3%0-25.2%0-32.2%0-4+0.9%1 1-09.7%1-112.1%1-27.6%1-33.2%1-4+1.3%2 2-07.1%2-18.9%2-25.6%2-32.3%2-4+1.0%3 3-03.5%3-14.3%3-22.7%3-31.1%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-01.7%4+-12.2%4+-21.4%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.3% 65.4% 1.53 -30.7%

Draw 24.5% 24.4% 4.10 +0.3%

Away win 30.2% 21.7% 4.60 +38.9%

Over 2.5 53.8% 70.4% 1.42 -23.6%

Over 3.5 31.7% 48.3% 2.07 -34.4%

BTTS 55.9% 66.7% 1.50 -16.2%

Home O1.5 39.9% — — —

Away O1.5 36.8% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 49 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 55%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 45%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 34%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob55.9%

H 45% / xG 1.5-1.3 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.1%

#2 2–1 8.9%

#3 1–0 9.7%

#4 2–0 7.1%

#5 1–2 7.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Jitex W1.5

Gamla Upsala W1.3

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.8% · O3.5 PROB 31.7%

Form & verdict PPG

JITEX W · PPG 1.11

GAMLA UPSALA W · PPG 1.14

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.21 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Jitex W (H) 45.3%

ODDS 1.53 · IMPLIED 65.4% EV -30.7%

Draw 24.5%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV +0.3%

Gamla Upsala W (A) 30.2%

ODDS 4.60 · IMPLIED 21.7% EV +38.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Jitex W face Gamla Upsala W in Sweden - Elitettan on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Jitex W a 45% chance, the draw 25% and Gamla Upsala W 30%, so Jitex W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Jitex W and 1.3 for Gamla Upsala W (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Jitex W are averaging 1.11 points per game versus 1.14 for Gamla Upsala W.

Jitex W vs Gamla Upsala W Prediction— Sweden - Elitettan

Match Preview & Prediction

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