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Hammarby W vs Norrköping W Prediction— Sweden - Damallsvenskan

Matchday 17 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 13:00

Hammarby W

PPG 2.62 · HOME

LAST 5

WWWDW

UPCOMING

Norrköping W

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWLDL

// Model verdict

Home 84% chance

Model probability 76.6% vs bookmaker-implied 87.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.5%0-12.2%0-20.5%0-30.1%0-4+0.0%1 1-011.6%1-15.8%1-21.4%1-30.2%1-4+0.0%2 2-015.2%2-17.5%2-21.9%2-30.3%2-4+0.0%3 3-013.3%3-16.6%3-21.6%3-30.3%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-016.3%4+-18.1%4+-22.0%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 76.6% 87.7% 1.14 -12.7%

Draw 15.8% 15.4% 6.50 +1.6%

Away win 7.6% 6.7% 15.00 +8.4%

Over 2.5 61.0% 73.5% 1.36 -17.0%

Over 3.5 37.7% 54.6% 1.83 -31.0%

BTTS 48.0% 52.4% 1.91 -8.3%

Home O1.5 66.3% 83.3% 1.20 -20.4%

Away O1.5 14.0% 18.2% 5.50 -13.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 63 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 49%

Score Hit 40%

ROI -18.7%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 65%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.6 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob48.0%

H 77% / xG 2.6-0.5 / O2.5 61% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 15.2%

#2 3–0 13.3%

#3 1–0 11.6%

#4 4–0 8.7%

#5 1–1 5.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Hammarby W2.6

Norrköping W0.5

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.0% · O3.5 PROB 37.7%

Form & verdict PPG

HAMMARBY W · PPG 2.62

NORRKÖPING W · PPG 1.00

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

Chance this pick lands

84%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +2.12 for Home, form 2.62 vs 1.00 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Hammarby W (H) 76.6%

ODDS 1.14 · IMPLIED 87.7% EV -12.7%

Draw 15.8%

ODDS 6.50 · IMPLIED 15.4% EV +1.6%

Norrköping W (A) 7.6%

ODDS 15.00 · IMPLIED 6.7% EV +8.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Hammarby W face Norrköping W in Sweden - Damallsvenskan on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Hammarby W a 77% chance, the draw 16% and Norrköping W 8%, so Hammarby W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.6 for Hammarby W and 0.5 for Norrköping W (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Hammarby W are averaging 2.62 points per game versus 1.00 for Norrköping W.

Hammarby W vs Norrköping W Prediction— Sweden - Damallsvenskan

Match Preview & Prediction

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