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Kristianstad W vs Brommapojkarna W Prediction— Sweden - Damallsvenskan

Matchday 17 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 12:00

Kristianstad W

PPG 1.75 · HOME

LAST 5

WLWDW

UPCOMING

Brommapojkarna W

PPG 0.88 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLLDD

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 66% chance

Combined xG of 3.6 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 66.8% vs bookmaker-implied 65.4% — a real, if thin, edge.

+2.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.8%0-13.1%0-21.8%0-30.7%0-4+0.2%1 1-06.9%1-17.7%1-24.3%1-31.6%1-4+0.6%2 2-08.4%2-19.5%2-25.3%2-32.0%2-4+0.7%3 3-06.9%3-17.7%3-24.3%3-31.6%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-07.6%4+-18.5%4+-24.8%4+-31.8%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 61.9% 59.9% 1.67 +3.4%

Draw 18.0% 28.6% 3.50 -22.2%

Away win 20.1% 23.8% 4.20 -9.3%

Over 2.5 66.8% 65.4% 1.53 +2.2%

Over 3.5 44.9% 44.4% 2.25 +1.0%

BTTS 59.7% 64.5% 1.55 -7.5%

Home O1.5 66.3% 65.4% 1.53 +1.4%

Away O1.5 33.2% 33.3% 3.00 -0.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 63 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 49%

Score Hit 40%

ROI -18.7%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 63%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.5 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob59.7%

H 62% / xG 2.5-1.1 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 9.5%

#2 2–0 8.4%

#3 1–1 7.7%

#4 3–1 7.7%

#5 3–0 6.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Kristianstad W2.5

Brommapojkarna W1.1

COMBINED 3.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 66.8% · O3.5 PROB 44.9%

Form & verdict PPG

KRISTIANSTAD W · PPG 1.75

BROMMAPOJKARNA W · PPG 0.88

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

66%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.34 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Kristianstad W (H) 61.9%

ODDS 1.67 · IMPLIED 59.9% EV +3.4%

Draw 18.0%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -22.2%

Brommapojkarna W (A) 20.1%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -9.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Kristianstad W face Brommapojkarna W in Sweden - Damallsvenskan on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Kristianstad W a 62% chance, the draw 18% and Brommapojkarna W 20%, so Kristianstad W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.5 for Kristianstad W and 1.1 for Brommapojkarna W (3.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Kristianstad W are averaging 1.75 points per game versus 0.88 for Brommapojkarna W. The best value bet our model finds is TT_HomeO25, with an expected value of +16.6%.

Kristianstad W vs Brommapojkarna W Prediction— Sweden - Damallsvenskan

Match Preview & Prediction

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