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Djurgården W vs Rosengård W Prediction— Sweden - Damallsvenskan

Matchday 17 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 12:00

Djurgården W

PPG 1.29 · HOME

LAST 5

WWDWL

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Rosengård W

PPG 0.75 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLDLW

// Model verdict

BTTS 61% chance

Model probability 52.9% vs bookmaker-implied 64.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.5%0-17.4%0-23.6%0-31.2%0-4+0.4%1 1-012.0%1-111.8%1-25.8%1-31.9%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.7%2-19.5%2-24.7%2-31.5%2-4+0.5%3 3-05.2%3-15.1%3-22.5%3-30.8%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-03.0%4+-12.9%4+-21.4%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.5% 44.4% 2.25 +15.9%

Draw 24.3% 32.3% 3.10 -14.8%

Away win 24.2% 36.4% 2.75 -20.1%

Over 2.5 51.8% 58.8% 1.70 -11.9%

Over 3.5 31.6% 38.2% 2.62 -17.2%

BTTS 52.9% 64.5% 1.55 -18.0%

Home O1.5 48.0% 50.0% 2.00 -4.0%

Away O1.5 28.7% 42.0% 2.38 -19.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 69 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 41%

ROI -33.1%

Bet Hit 41%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 31%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob52.9%

H 52% / xG 1.6-1.0 / O2.5 52% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.8%

#2 1–0 12.0%

#3 2–0 9.7%

#4 2–1 9.5%

#5 0–0 7.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Djurgården W1.6

Rosengård W1.0

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 51.8% · O3.5 PROB 31.6%

Form & verdict PPG

DJURGÅRDEN W · PPG 1.29

ROSENGÅRD W · PPG 0.75

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

Chance this pick lands

61%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.62 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Djurgården W (H) 51.5%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV +15.9%

Draw 24.3%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -14.8%

Rosengård W (A) 24.2%

ODDS 2.75 · IMPLIED 36.4% EV -20.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Djurgården W face Rosengård W in Sweden - Damallsvenskan on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Djurgården W a 52% chance, the draw 24% and Rosengård W 24%, so Djurgården W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Djurgården W and 1.0 for Rosengård W (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Djurgården W are averaging 1.29 points per game versus 0.75 for Rosengård W. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +3.0%. This match finished 0-1.

Djurgården W vs Rosengård W Prediction— Sweden - Damallsvenskan

Match Preview & Prediction

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