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Eskilstuna United W vs AIK W Prediction— Sweden - Damallsvenskan

Matchday 17 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 14:00

Eskilstuna United W

PPG 1.62 · HOME

LAST 5

WWLWD

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

AIK W

PPG 0.71 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLLLD

// Model verdict

Home 43% chance

Model probability 53.0% vs bookmaker-implied 38.5% — a clear edge.

+37.8% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.2%0-18.3%0-23.8%0-31.1%0-4+0.3%1 1-013.6%1-112.3%1-25.6%1-31.7%1-4+0.5%2 2-010.1%2-19.1%2-24.1%2-31.2%2-4+0.3%3 3-05.0%3-14.5%3-22.0%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-02.6%4+-12.3%4+-21.0%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.0% 38.5% 2.60 +37.8%

Draw 24.3% 32.3% 3.10 -14.8%

Away win 22.7% 43.5% 2.30 -28.7%

Over 2.5 50.6% 54.1% 1.85 -6.4%

Over 3.5 28.7% 33.3% 3.00 -8.3%

BTTS 50.0% 61.7% 1.62 -19.0%

Home O1.5 39.9% 43.1% 2.32 -7.4%

Away O1.5 26.0% 46.7% 2.14 -26.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 69 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 41%

ROI -33.1%

Bet Hit 41%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 27%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob50.0%

H 53% / xG 1.5-0.9 / U2.5 51% / BTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 13.6%

#2 1–1✓ 12.3%

#3 2–0 10.1%

#4 2–1 9.1%

#5 0–0 9.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Eskilstuna United W1.5

AIK W0.9

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.6% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

ESKILSTUNA UNITED W · PPG 1.62

AIK W · PPG 0.71

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

Chance this pick lands

43%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.58 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Eskilstuna United W (H) 53.0%

ODDS 2.60 · IMPLIED 38.5% EV +37.8%

Draw 24.3%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -14.8%

AIK W (A) 22.7%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV -28.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Eskilstuna United W face AIK W in Sweden - Damallsvenskan on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Eskilstuna United W a 53% chance, the draw 24% and AIK W 23%, so Eskilstuna United W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Eskilstuna United W and 0.9 for AIK W (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Eskilstuna United W are averaging 1.62 points per game versus 0.71 for AIK W. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +9.5%. This match finished 1-1.

Eskilstuna United W vs AIK W Prediction— Sweden - Damallsvenskan

Match Preview & Prediction

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