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Piteå W vs Växjö W Prediction— Sweden - Damallsvenskan

Matchday 17 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 10:30

Piteå W

PPG 1.25 · HOME

LAST 5

DLLWD

UPCOMING

Växjö W

PPG 0.57 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWLWL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 60% chance

Combined xG of 3.0 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 60.5% vs bookmaker-implied 59.9% — a real, if thin, edge.

+1.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.1%0-15.6%0-23.1%0-31.1%0-4+0.4%1 1-09.5%1-110.5%1-25.8%1-32.1%1-4+0.7%2 2-09.0%2-19.9%2-25.4%2-32.0%2-4+0.7%3 3-05.6%3-16.2%3-23.4%3-31.3%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-04.1%4+-14.5%4+-22.5%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.5% 54.1% 1.85 -2.9%

Draw 23.5% 30.3% 3.30 -13.5%

Away win 24.0% 29.4% 3.40 -11.0%

Over 2.5 60.5% 59.9% 1.67 +1.0%

Over 3.5 37.6% 38.2% 2.62 -1.5%

BTTS 60.0% 63.7% 1.57 -5.8%

Home O1.5 55.8% 55.6% 1.80 +0.4%

Away O1.5 33.2% 36.4% 2.75 -8.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 63 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 49%

Score Hit 40%

ROI -18.7%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 55%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob60.0%

H 52% / xG 1.9-1.1 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.5%

#2 2–1 9.9%

#3 2–0 9.0%

#4 1–0 9.5%

#5 1–2 5.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Piteå W1.9

Växjö W1.1

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.5% · O3.5 PROB 37.6%

Form & verdict PPG

PITEÅ W · PPG 1.25

VÄXJÖ W · PPG 0.57

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

60%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.78 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Piteå W (H) 52.5%

ODDS 1.85 · IMPLIED 54.1% EV -2.9%

Draw 23.5%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -13.5%

Växjö W (A) 24.0%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -11.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Piteå W face Växjö W in Sweden - Damallsvenskan on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Piteå W a 53% chance, the draw 24% and Växjö W 24%, so Piteå W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Piteå W and 1.1 for Växjö W (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Piteå W are averaging 1.25 points per game versus 0.57 for Växjö W. The best value bet our model finds is TT_HomeO25, with an expected value of +1.3%.

Piteå W vs Växjö W Prediction— Sweden - Damallsvenskan

Match Preview & Prediction

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