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Adelaide City vs Playford City Patriots Prediction— Australia - NPL South Australia

Semi-finals ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 09:30

Adelaide City

PPG 2.45 · HOME

6 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME O1.5

Playford City Patriots

PPG 1.36 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5 59% chance

Model probability 55.8% vs bookmaker-implied 59.9%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.1%0-15.4%0-22.4%0-30.7%0-4+0.2%1 1-011.6%1-110.3%1-24.6%1-31.4%1-4+0.4%2 2-011.0%2-19.9%2-24.4%2-31.3%2-4+0.4%3 3-07.0%3-16.3%3-22.8%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-05.2%4+-14.6%4+-22.1%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 54.3% 61.7% 1.62 -12.0%

Draw 23.7% 28.6% 3.50 -10.2%

Away win 22.0% 21.7% 4.60 +0.7%

Over 2.5 53.8% 59.9% 1.67 -10.2%

Over 3.5 32.4% 38.2% 2.62 -15.1%

BTTS 53.6% 60.6% 1.65 -11.6%

Home O1.5 55.8% 59.9% 1.67 -6.8%

Away O1.5 25.8% 28.6% 3.50 -5.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 35 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 49%

Score Hit 34%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 40%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 6-0

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob53.6%

H 54% / xG 1.9-0.9 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 54%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.3%

#2 2–0 11.0%

#3 1–0 11.6%

#4 2–1 9.9%

#5 0–0 6.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Adelaide City1.9

Playford City Patriots0.9

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.8% · O3.5 PROB 32.4%

Form & verdict PPG

ADELAIDE CITY · PPG 2.45

PLAYFORD CITY PATRIOTS · PPG 1.36

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

59%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.02 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Adelaide City (H) 54.3%

ODDS 1.62 · IMPLIED 61.7% EV -12.0%

Draw 23.7%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -10.2%

Playford City Patriots (A) 22.0%

ODDS 4.60 · IMPLIED 21.7% EV +0.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Adelaide City face Playford City Patriots in Australia - NPL South Australia on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Adelaide City a 54% chance, the draw 24% and Playford City Patriots 22%, so Adelaide City are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Adelaide City and 0.9 for Playford City Patriots (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Adelaide City are averaging 2.45 points per game versus 1.36 for Playford City Patriots. The best value bet our model finds is A/BTTS, with an expected value of +2.2%. This match finished 6-0.

Adelaide City vs Playford City Patriots Prediction— Australia - NPL South Australia

Match Preview & Prediction

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