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Viitorul Şelimbăr vs Metalul Buzău Prediction— Romania - Liga II

Matchday 6 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 08:00

Viitorul Şelimbăr

PPG 1.42 · HOME

LAST 5

LDLDW

UPCOMING

Metalul Buzău

PPG 1.61 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWWLL

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.9% vs bookmaker-implied 55.9%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.8%0-19.7%0-25.3%0-32.0%0-4+0.7%1 1-011.7%1-112.9%1-27.1%1-32.6%1-4+0.9%2 2-07.8%2-18.6%2-24.7%2-31.7%2-4+0.6%3 3-03.4%3-13.8%3-22.1%3-30.8%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-01.5%4+-11.7%4+-20.9%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.3% 32.3% 3.10 +37.3%

Draw 26.3% 32.1% 3.12 -10.8%

Away win 29.3% 46.9% 2.13 -22.6%

Over 2.5 50.5% 49.5% 2.02 +2.0%

Over 3.5 28.7% 27.9% 3.58 +1.7%

BTTS 52.9% 55.9% 1.79 -5.3%

Home O1.5 38.8% 34.1% 2.93 +13.7%

Away O1.5 33.2% 44.1% 2.27 -24.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 11 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 36%

O2.5 36%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 21%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob52.9%

H 44% / xG 1.3-1.1 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.9%

#2 1–0 11.7%

#3 2–1 8.6%

#4 0–0 8.8%

#5 2–0 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Viitorul Şelimbăr1.3

Metalul Buzău1.1

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.5% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

VIITORUL ŞELIMBĂR · PPG 1.42

METALUL BUZĂU · PPG 1.61

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.23, combined xG 2.43 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Viitorul Şelimbăr (H) 44.3%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV +37.3%

Draw 26.3%

ODDS 3.12 · IMPLIED 32.1% EV -10.8%

Metalul Buzău (A) 29.3%

ODDS 2.13 · IMPLIED 46.9% EV -22.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Viitorul Şelimbăr face Metalul Buzău in Romania - Liga II on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Viitorul Şelimbăr a 44% chance, the draw 26% and Metalul Buzău 29%, so Viitorul Şelimbăr are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Viitorul Şelimbăr and 1.1 for Metalul Buzău (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Viitorul Şelimbăr are averaging 1.42 points per game versus 1.61 for Metalul Buzău. The best value bet our model finds is RES_H/O15, with an expected value of +26.8%.

Viitorul Şelimbăr vs Metalul Buzău Prediction— Romania - Liga II

Match Preview & Prediction

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