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CSM Reşiţa vs CSA Steaua Bucureşti Prediction— Romania - Liga II

Matchday 5 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 08:00

CSM Reşiţa

PPG 1.98 · HOME

LAST 5

WWWLW

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME O1.5

CSA Steaua Bucureşti

PPG 1.08 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLLDL

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 59.6% vs bookmaker-implied 47.6% — a clear edge.

+25.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.5%0-14.6%0-22.4%0-30.8%0-4+0.3%1 1-09.4%1-19.6%1-24.9%1-31.7%1-4+0.5%2 2-09.7%2-19.9%2-25.1%2-31.7%2-4+0.6%3 3-06.7%3-16.9%3-23.5%3-31.2%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-05.6%4+-15.8%4+-22.9%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 56.1% 47.6% 2.10 +17.8%

Draw 22.1% 30.8% 3.25 -16.9%

Away win 21.8% 31.3% 3.20 -18.1%

Over 2.5 60.0% 51.3% 1.95 +17.0%

Over 3.5 37.4% 29.0% 3.45 +29.0%

BTTS 55.1% 57.8% 1.73 -4.7%

Home O1.5 59.6% 47.6% 2.10 +25.2%

Away O1.5 32.6% 35.1% 2.85 -7.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 11 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 36%

O2.5 36%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 51%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob55.1%

H 56% / xG 2.1-1.0 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.6%

#2 2–1✓ 9.9%

#3 2–0 9.7%

#4 1–0 9.4%

#5 1–2 4.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

CSM Reşiţa2.1

CSA Steaua Bucureşti1.0

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.0% · O3.5 PROB 37.4%

Form & verdict PPG

CSM REŞIŢA · PPG 1.98

CSA STEAUA BUCUREŞTI · PPG 1.08

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.05 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

CSM Reşiţa (H) 56.1%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV +17.8%

Draw 22.1%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -16.9%

CSA Steaua Bucureşti (A) 21.8%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -18.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

CSM Reşiţa face CSA Steaua Bucureşti in Romania - Liga II on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives CSM Reşiţa a 56% chance, the draw 22% and CSA Steaua Bucureşti 22%, so CSM Reşiţa are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for CSM Reşiţa and 1.0 for CSA Steaua Bucureşti (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, CSM Reşiţa are averaging 1.98 points per game versus 1.08 for CSA Steaua Bucureşti. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +41.8%. This match finished 2-1.

CSM Reşiţa vs CSA Steaua Bucureşti Prediction— Romania - Liga II

Match Preview & Prediction

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