Today / Romania - Liga II / CSA Steaua Bucureşti vs Dumbrăviţa

CSA Steaua Bucureşti vs Dumbrăviţa Prediction— Romania - Liga II

Matchday 4 ·Sunday, August 23, 2026, 08:00

CSA Steaua Bucureşti

PPG 1.30 · HOME

LAST 5

LLLDL

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Dumbrăviţa

PPG 0.91 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLDDL

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 53.0% vs bookmaker-implied 54.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.0%0-18.6%0-24.6%0-31.7%0-4+0.6%1 1-011.6%1-112.5%1-26.7%1-32.4%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.4%2-19.0%2-24.9%2-31.7%2-4+0.6%3 3-04.1%3-14.4%3-22.4%3-30.8%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-02.0%4+-12.2%4+-21.2%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.5% 59.9% 1.67 -25.7%

Draw 26.5% 30.3% 3.30 -7.5%

Away win 29.0% 20.8% 4.80 +23.5%

Over 2.5 50.2% 54.1% 1.85 -7.1%

Over 3.5 28.9% 32.8% 3.05 -7.1%

BTTS 53.0% 54.6% 1.83 -3.0%

Home O1.5 40.0% 56.8% 1.76 -29.6%

Away O1.5 34.8% 26.7% 3.75 +30.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 11 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 36%

O2.5 36%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 23%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob53.0%

H 44% / xG 1.4-1.1 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.5%

#2 1–0 11.6%

#3 2–1 9.0%

#4 0–0 8.0%

#5 2–0 8.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

CSA Steaua Bucureşti1.4

Dumbrăviţa1.1

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.2% · O3.5 PROB 28.9%

Form & verdict PPG

CSA STEAUA BUCUREŞTI · PPG 1.30

DUMBRĂVIŢA · PPG 0.91

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.38 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

CSA Steaua Bucureşti (H) 44.5%

ODDS 1.67 · IMPLIED 59.9% EV -25.7%

Draw 26.5%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -7.5%

Dumbrăviţa (A) 29.0%

ODDS 4.80 · IMPLIED 20.8% EV +23.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

CSA Steaua Bucureşti face Dumbrăviţa in Romania - Liga II on Sunday, August 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives CSA Steaua Bucureşti a 45% chance, the draw 27% and Dumbrăviţa 29%, so CSA Steaua Bucureşti are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for CSA Steaua Bucureşti and 1.1 for Dumbrăviţa (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, CSA Steaua Bucureşti are averaging 1.30 points per game versus 0.91 for Dumbrăviţa. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +44.0%. This match finished 2-2.

CSA Steaua Bucureşti vs Dumbrăviţa Prediction— Romania - Liga II

Match Preview & Prediction

More Romania - Liga II Predictions