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ASA Targu Mures vs Gloria Bistriţa Prediction— Romania - Liga II

Matchday 4 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 08:00

ASA Targu Mures

PPG 1.52 · HOME

LAST 5

LLDWL

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Gloria Bistriţa

PPG 1.48 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWLLW

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.7% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.5%0-18.2%0-25.2%0-32.2%0-4+0.9%1 1-09.6%1-112.1%1-27.6%1-33.2%1-4+1.3%2 2-07.0%2-18.9%2-25.6%2-32.3%2-4+1.0%3 3-03.4%3-14.3%3-22.7%3-31.1%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-01.8%4+-12.2%4+-21.4%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 39.5% 43.5% 2.30 -9.2%

Draw 24.9% 31.3% 3.20 -12.2%

Away win 35.5% 35.7% 2.80 -0.6%

Over 2.5 53.9% 48.8% 2.05 +10.5%

Over 3.5 31.6% 27.0% 3.70 +16.9%

BTTS 54.7% 55.6% 1.80 -1.5%

Home O1.5 40.0% 42.6% 2.35 -6.0%

Away O1.5 37.3% 37.0% 2.70 +0.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 11 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 36%

O2.5 36%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 29%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob54.7%

H 40% / xG 1.5-1.3 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.1%

#2 1–2 7.6%

#3 2–1 8.9%

#4 1–0✓ 9.6%

#5 0–1 8.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

ASA Targu Mures1.5

Gloria Bistriţa1.3

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.9% · O3.5 PROB 31.6%

Form & verdict PPG

ASA TARGU MURES · PPG 1.52

GLORIA BISTRIŢA · PPG 1.48

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.21 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

ASA Targu Mures (H) 39.5%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV -9.2%

Draw 24.9%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -12.2%

Gloria Bistriţa (A) 35.5%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV -0.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

ASA Targu Mures face Gloria Bistriţa in Romania - Liga II on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives ASA Targu Mures a 40% chance, the draw 25% and Gloria Bistriţa 36%, so ASA Targu Mures are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for ASA Targu Mures and 1.3 for Gloria Bistriţa (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, ASA Targu Mures are averaging 1.52 points per game versus 1.48 for Gloria Bistriţa. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +16.9%. This match finished 1-0.

ASA Targu Mures vs Gloria Bistriţa Prediction— Romania - Liga II

Match Preview & Prediction

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