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Portland Timbers II vs Austin II Prediction— USA - MLS Next Pro

Group Stage ·Sunday, August 30, 2026, 20:00

Portland Timbers II

PPG 1.55 · HOME

LAST 5

WDWDW

2 – 1

FULL TIME

Austin II

PPG 2.27 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWDWL

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.8%0-115.1%0-28.9%0-33.5%0-4+1.3%1 1-011.2%1-113.2%1-27.8%1-33.1%1-4+1.2%2 2-04.9%2-15.8%2-23.4%2-31.3%2-4+0.5%3 3-01.4%3-11.7%3-21.0%3-30.4%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.4%4+-10.4%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 30.2% 40.0% 2.50 -24.5%

Draw 27.2% 33.3% 3.00 -11.0%

Away win 42.5% 40.0% 2.50 +6.3%

Over 2.5 43.1% 54.1% 1.85 -20.3%

Over 3.5 20.7% 37.0% 2.70 -26.5%

BTTS 47.2% 62.5% 1.60 -24.5%

Home O1.5 30.9% 45.0% 2.22 -31.4%

Away O1.5 33.5% 46.1% 2.17 -27.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 79 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 66%

O2.5 77%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 24%

ROI 9.8%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 31%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob47.2%

A 42% / xG 0.9-1.2 / U2.5 43% / NoBTTS 47%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–1 15.1%

#2 1–1 13.2%

#3 0–0 12.8%

#4 1–0 11.2%

#5 0–2 8.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Portland Timbers II0.9

Austin II1.2

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 43.1% · O3.5 PROB 20.7%

Form & verdict PPG

PORTLAND TIMBERS II · PPG 1.55

AUSTIN II · PPG 2.27

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.31, combined xG 2.06 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Portland Timbers II (H) 30.2%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV -24.5%

Draw 27.2%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -11.0%

Austin II (A) 42.5%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV +6.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Portland Timbers II face Austin II in USA - MLS Next Pro on Sunday, August 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Portland Timbers II a 30% chance, the draw 27% and Austin II 43%, so Austin II are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Portland Timbers II and 1.2 for Austin II (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-1. There is a 43% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Portland Timbers II are averaging 1.55 points per game versus 2.27 for Austin II. This match finished 2-1.

Portland Timbers II vs Austin II Prediction— USA - MLS Next Pro

Match Preview & Prediction

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