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Atletico FC vs 9 de Octubre Prediction— Ecuador - Liga Pro Serie B

Promotion Group · Matchday 2 ·Friday, September 4, 2026, 20:30

Atletico FC

PPG 2.18 · HOME

LAST 5

LDWLD

2 – 2

FULL TIME

9 de Octubre

PPG 1.17 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDDDD

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-023.3%0-110.5%0-22.4%0-30.4%0-4+0.0%1 1-023.4%1-110.6%1-22.4%1-30.4%1-4+0.0%2 2-011.8%2-15.3%2-21.2%2-30.2%2-4+0.0%3 3-04.0%3-11.8%3-20.4%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-01.2%4+-10.6%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.4% — — —

Draw 31.9% — — —

Away win 21.6% — — —

Over 2.5 34.6% — — —

Over 3.5 13.6% — — —

BTTS 41.7% — — —

Home O1.5 30.8% — — —

Away O1.5 12.8% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 41 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 37%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 71%

Score Hit 61%

ROI 10.4%

Bet Hit 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 23.4%

#2 0–0 23.3%

#3 0–1 10.5%

#4 2–0 11.8%

#5 1–1 10.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Atletico FC1.0

9 de Octubre0.5

COMBINED 1.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 34.6% · O3.5 PROB 13.6%

Form & verdict PPG

ATLETICO FC · PPG 2.18

9 DE OCTUBRE · PPG 1.17

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

46%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.56 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Atletico FC (H) 46.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 31.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

9 de Octubre (A) 21.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Atletico FC face 9 de Octubre in Ecuador - Liga Pro Serie B on Friday, September 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Atletico FC a 46% chance, the draw 32% and 9 de Octubre 22%, so Atletico FC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Atletico FC and 0.5 for 9 de Octubre (1.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 42% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Atletico FC are averaging 2.18 points per game versus 1.17 for 9 de Octubre. This match finished 2-2.

Atletico FC vs 9 de Octubre Prediction— Ecuador - Liga Pro Serie B

Match Preview & Prediction

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