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KVC Westerlo vs Zulte Waregem Prediction— Belgium - Jupiler Pro League

Matchday 4 ·Sunday, August 30, 2026, 17:15

KVC Westerlo

PPG 1.11 · HOME

LAST 5

LLLD ·

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Zulte Waregem

PPG 1.21 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDWD ·

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.0 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 59.8% vs bookmaker-implied 65.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.0%0-18.7%0-27.5%0-34.3%0-4+2.8%1 1-06.3%1-110.9%1-29.5%1-35.5%1-4+3.5%2 2-04.0%2-16.9%2-26.0%2-33.5%2-4+2.2%3 3-01.7%3-12.9%3-22.5%3-31.5%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-11.2%4+-21.1%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 27.4% 34.5% 2.90 -12.3%

Draw 22.3% 29.4% 3.40 -14.5%

Away win 50.2% 45.5% 2.20 +10.4%

Over 2.5 59.8% 65.4% 1.53 -8.5%

Over 3.5 37.1% 44.4% 2.25 -16.5%

BTTS 58.3% 69.4% 1.44 -16.1%

Home O1.5 37.2% 47.6% 2.10 -21.9%

Away O1.5 47.9% 55.6% 1.80 -13.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 23 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 74%

BTTS 70%

Score Hit 39%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 51%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob58.3%

A 50% / xG 1.3-1.7 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 58%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.9%

#2 1–2 9.5%

#3 0–2 7.5%

#4 0–1 8.7%

#5 2–1 6.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

KVC Westerlo1.3

Zulte Waregem1.7

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.8% · O3.5 PROB 37.1%

Form & verdict PPG

KVC WESTERLO · PPG 1.11

ZULTE WAREGEM · PPG 1.21

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.47 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

KVC Westerlo (H) 27.4%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -12.3%

Draw 22.3%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -14.5%

Zulte Waregem (A) 50.2%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV +10.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

KVC Westerlo face Zulte Waregem in Belgium - Jupiler Pro League on Sunday, August 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives KVC Westerlo a 27% chance, the draw 22% and Zulte Waregem 50%, so Zulte Waregem are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for KVC Westerlo and 1.7 for Zulte Waregem (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 58% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, KVC Westerlo are averaging 1.11 points per game versus 1.21 for Zulte Waregem. This match finished 2-2.

KVC Westerlo vs Zulte Waregem Prediction— Belgium - Jupiler Pro League

Match Preview & Prediction

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