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Club Brugge KV vs Cercle Brugge Prediction— Belgium - Jupiler Pro League

Matchday 3 ·Sunday, August 23, 2026, 16:30

Club Brugge KV

PPG 2.29 · HOME

LAST 5

WWWL ·

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Cercle Brugge

PPG 1.42 · AWAY

LAST 5

DDLL ·

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 65.4% vs bookmaker-implied 80.0%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.5%0-12.5%0-21.3%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-06.6%1-16.8%1-23.5%1-31.2%1-4+0.4%2 2-08.8%2-19.1%2-24.7%2-31.6%2-4+0.5%3 3-07.8%3-18.1%3-24.2%3-31.4%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-010.0%4+-110.3%4+-25.3%4+-31.8%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 65.4% 80.0% 1.25 -18.3%

Draw 19.1% 18.2% 5.50 +3.0%

Away win 15.5% 11.8% 8.50 +19.1%

Over 2.5 65.0% 76.9% 1.30 -15.5%

Over 3.5 43.5% 57.8% 1.73 -24.8%

BTTS 60.3% 63.7% 1.57 -5.3%

Home O1.5 65.1% 82.0% 1.22 -20.6%

Away O1.5 32.4% 28.6% 3.50 +13.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 23 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 74%

BTTS 70%

Score Hit 39%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 69%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)2.7 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob60.3%

H 65% / xG 2.7-1.0 / O2.5 65% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 6.8%

#2 2–1 9.1%

#3 2–0 8.8%

#4 3–1 8.1%

#5 3–0 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Club Brugge KV2.7

Cercle Brugge1.0

COMBINED 3.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 65.0% · O3.5 PROB 43.5%

Form & verdict PPG

CLUB BRUGGE KV · PPG 2.29

CERCLE BRUGGE · PPG 1.42

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

95%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +1.64 for Home, form 2.29 vs 1.42 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Club Brugge KV (H) 65.4%

ODDS 1.25 · IMPLIED 80.0% EV -18.3%

Draw 19.1%

ODDS 5.50 · IMPLIED 18.2% EV +3.0%

Cercle Brugge (A) 15.5%

ODDS 8.50 · IMPLIED 11.8% EV +19.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Club Brugge KV face Cercle Brugge in Belgium - Jupiler Pro League on Sunday, August 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Club Brugge KV a 65% chance, the draw 19% and Cercle Brugge 16%, so Club Brugge KV are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.7 for Club Brugge KV and 1.0 for Cercle Brugge (3.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 65% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Club Brugge KV are averaging 2.29 points per game versus 1.42 for Cercle Brugge. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +46.9%. This match finished 1-0.

Club Brugge KV vs Cercle Brugge Prediction— Belgium - Jupiler Pro League

Match Preview & Prediction

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