Today / Belgium - Jupiler Pro League / OH Leuven vs Standard Liege

OH Leuven vs Standard Liege Prediction— Belgium - Jupiler Pro League

Matchday 4 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 18:45

OH Leuven

PPG 0.98 · HOME

LAST 5

LLL ··

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Standard Liege

PPG 1.55 · AWAY

LAST 5

DDWW ·

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 59.9% vs bookmaker-implied 60.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.6%0-18.7%0-26.7%0-33.5%0-4+1.9%1 1-07.5%1-111.6%1-29.0%1-34.6%1-4+2.5%2 2-05.0%2-17.7%2-26.0%2-33.1%2-4+1.7%3 3-02.2%3-13.4%3-22.6%3-31.4%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-01.0%4+-11.5%4+-21.2%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 31.4% 36.4% 2.75 -13.7%

Draw 24.3% 29.9% 3.35 -11.2%

Away win 44.4% 40.8% 2.45 +8.8%

Over 2.5 59.7% 54.1% 1.85 +10.4%

Over 3.5 36.7% 32.3% 3.10 +13.8%

BTTS 59.9% 60.6% 1.65 -1.2%

Home O1.5 37.5% 41.7% 2.40 -10.0%

Away O1.5 47.9% 44.4% 2.25 +7.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 23 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 74%

BTTS 70%

Score Hit 39%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 46%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob59.9%

A 44% / xG 1.3-1.5 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.6%

#2 1–2✓ 9.0%

#3 2–1 7.7%

#4 0–1 8.7%

#5 0–2 6.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

OH Leuven1.3

Standard Liege1.5

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.7% · O3.5 PROB 36.7%

Form & verdict PPG

OH LEUVEN · PPG 0.98

STANDARD LIEGE · PPG 1.55

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.22 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

OH Leuven (H) 31.4%

ODDS 2.75 · IMPLIED 36.4% EV -13.7%

Draw 24.3%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -11.2%

Standard Liege (A) 44.4%

ODDS 2.45 · IMPLIED 40.8% EV +8.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

OH Leuven face Standard Liege in Belgium - Jupiler Pro League on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives OH Leuven a 31% chance, the draw 24% and Standard Liege 44%, so Standard Liege are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for OH Leuven and 1.5 for Standard Liege (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, OH Leuven are averaging 0.98 points per game versus 1.55 for Standard Liege. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +17.8%. This match finished 1-2.

OH Leuven vs Standard Liege Prediction— Belgium - Jupiler Pro League

Match Preview & Prediction

More Belgium - Jupiler Pro League Predictions