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Başakşehir vs Galatasaray Prediction— Turkey - Süper Lig

Matchday 4 ·Friday, September 4, 2026, 17:00

Başakşehir

PPG 1.76 · HOME

LAST 5

WLD ··

UPCOMING

Galatasaray

PPG 2.02 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWW ··

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 60.0% vs bookmaker-implied 64.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.7%0-18.1%0-25.7%0-32.7%0-4+1.3%1 1-08.3%1-111.7%1-28.2%1-33.9%1-4+1.9%2 2-06.0%2-18.5%2-26.0%2-32.8%2-4+1.3%3 3-02.9%3-14.1%3-22.9%3-31.4%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-01.5%4+-12.1%4+-21.4%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 38.6% 22.7% 4.40 +69.8%

Draw 24.3% 23.8% 4.20 +1.2%

Away win 37.1% 60.2% 1.66 -38.4%

Over 2.5 59.6% 64.5% 1.55 -7.6%

Over 3.5 36.4% 42.6% 2.35 -14.5%

BTTS 60.0% 64.5% 1.55 -7.0%

Home O1.5 39.9% 36.4% 2.75 +9.7%

Away O1.5 42.2% 64.5% 1.55 -34.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 41%

ROI 20.3%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 42%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob60.0%

H 39% / xG 1.4-1.4 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.7%

#2 2–1 8.5%

#3 1–2 8.2%

#4 1–0 8.3%

#5 0–1 8.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Başakşehir1.4

Galatasaray1.4

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.6% · O3.5 PROB 36.4%

Form & verdict PPG

BAŞAKŞEHIR · PPG 1.76

GALATASARAY · PPG 2.02

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.04 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Başakşehir (H) 38.6%

ODDS 4.40 · IMPLIED 22.7% EV +69.8%

Draw 24.3%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV +1.2%

Galatasaray (A) 37.1%

ODDS 1.66 · IMPLIED 60.2% EV -38.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Başakşehir face Galatasaray in Turkey - Süper Lig on Friday, September 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Başakşehir a 39% chance, the draw 24% and Galatasaray 37%, so Başakşehir are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Başakşehir and 1.4 for Galatasaray (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Başakşehir are averaging 1.76 points per game versus 2.02 for Galatasaray. The best value bet our model finds is RES_H/O15, with an expected value of +50.5%.

Başakşehir vs Galatasaray Prediction— Turkey - Süper Lig

Match Preview & Prediction

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