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Karviná vs Kladno Prediction— Czech-Republic - FNL

Matchday 7 ·Friday, September 4, 2026, 16:00

Karviná

PPG 1.93 · HOME

LAST 5

WWWWL

UPCOMING

Kladno

PPG 1.06 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDDLW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.9 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 59.6% vs bookmaker-implied 67.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.5%0-15.7%0-22.9%0-31.0%0-4+0.3%1 1-010.4%1-110.6%1-25.4%1-31.8%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.7%2-19.9%2-25.1%2-31.7%2-4+0.6%3 3-06.0%3-16.2%3-23.2%3-31.1%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-04.3%4+-14.4%4+-22.3%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.3% 73.5% 1.36 -27.5%

Draw 23.8% 21.7% 4.60 +5.7%

Away win 22.8% 15.6% 6.40 +27.6%

Over 2.5 59.6% 67.6% 1.48 -11.8%

Over 3.5 36.4% 45.5% 2.20 -19.9%

BTTS 55.9% 60.6% 1.65 -7.8%

Home O1.5 55.8% 73.5% 1.36 -24.1%

Away O1.5 31.8% 29.0% 3.45 +9.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 72 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 43%

ROI 1.3%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 49%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob55.9%

H 53% / xG 1.9-1.0 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.6%

#2 2–1 9.9%

#3 2–0 9.7%

#4 1–0 10.4%

#5 0–0 5.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Karviná1.9

Kladno1.0

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.6% · O3.5 PROB 36.4%

Form & verdict PPG

KARVINÁ · PPG 1.93

KLADNO · PPG 1.06

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.85 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Karviná (H) 53.3%

ODDS 1.36 · IMPLIED 73.5% EV -27.5%

Draw 23.8%

ODDS 4.60 · IMPLIED 21.7% EV +5.7%

Kladno (A) 22.8%

ODDS 6.40 · IMPLIED 15.6% EV +27.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Karviná face Kladno in Czech-Republic - FNL on Friday, September 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Karviná a 53% chance, the draw 24% and Kladno 23%, so Karviná are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Karviná and 1.0 for Kladno (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Karviná are averaging 1.93 points per game versus 1.06 for Kladno. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +66.9%.

Karviná vs Kladno Prediction— Czech-Republic - FNL

Match Preview & Prediction

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