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Opava vs Dukla Praha Prediction— Czech-Republic - FNL

Matchday 7 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 16:00

Opava

PPG 1.74 · HOME

LAST 5

LDLDD

UPCOMING

Dukla Praha

PPG 1.21 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWLLW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.0 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 61.8% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6% — a clear edge.

+11.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.7%0-15.9%0-23.7%0-31.5%0-4+0.6%1 1-08.5%1-110.7%1-26.7%1-32.8%1-4+1.1%2 2-07.7%2-19.6%2-26.0%2-32.5%2-4+1.0%3 3-04.6%3-15.7%3-23.6%3-31.5%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-03.1%4+-13.9%4+-22.4%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.7% 35.7% 2.80 +30.8%

Draw 23.9% 33.3% 3.00 -17.0%

Away win 29.4% 43.5% 2.30 -19.4%

Over 2.5 61.8% 55.6% 1.80 +11.2%

Over 3.5 40.2% 33.3% 3.00 +20.6%

BTTS 61.5% 61.7% 1.62 -0.4%

Home O1.5 49.9% 42.0% 2.38 +18.8%

Away O1.5 36.8% 45.5% 2.20 -19.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 72 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 43%

ROI 1.3%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 53%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob61.5%

H 47% / xG 1.8-1.3 / O2.5 62% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.7%

#2 2–1 9.6%

#3 1–2 6.7%

#4 2–0 7.7%

#5 1–0 8.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Opava1.8

Dukla Praha1.3

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.8% · O3.5 PROB 40.2%

Form & verdict PPG

OPAVA · PPG 1.74

DUKLA PRAHA · PPG 1.21

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.55 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Opava (H) 46.7%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV +30.8%

Draw 23.9%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -17.0%

Dukla Praha (A) 29.4%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV -19.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Opava face Dukla Praha in Czech-Republic - FNL on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Opava a 47% chance, the draw 24% and Dukla Praha 29%, so Opava are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Opava and 1.3 for Dukla Praha (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Opava are averaging 1.74 points per game versus 1.21 for Dukla Praha. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +44.6%.

Opava vs Dukla Praha Prediction— Czech-Republic - FNL

Match Preview & Prediction

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