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Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki vs Warta Poznań Prediction— Poland - I Liga

Matchday 7 ·Friday, September 4, 2026, 16:00

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki

PPG 1.62 · HOME

LAST 5

WWDDD

UPCOMING

Warta Poznań

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWLWL

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 60.3% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.0%0-16.2%0-23.8%0-31.6%0-4+0.6%1 1-08.8%1-110.9%1-26.7%1-32.8%1-4+1.1%2 2-07.8%2-19.6%2-25.9%2-32.4%2-4+1.0%3 3-04.6%3-15.6%3-23.5%3-31.4%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-03.0%4+-13.7%4+-22.3%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.5% 44.4% 2.25 +6.9%

Draw 23.9% 28.2% 3.55 -9.1%

Away win 28.6% 37.0% 2.70 -13.7%

Over 2.5 59.6% 61.7% 1.62 -3.5%

Over 3.5 36.4% 40.0% 2.50 -9.0%

BTTS 60.3% 66.7% 1.50 -9.6%

Home O1.5 49.9% 52.6% 1.90 -5.2%

Away O1.5 36.8% 47.6% 2.10 -22.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 66 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 52%

ROI -10.9%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 51%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob60.3%

H 48% / xG 1.8-1.2 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.9%

#2 2–1 9.6%

#3 2–0 7.8%

#4 1–2 6.7%

#5 1–0 8.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki1.8

Warta Poznań1.2

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.6% · O3.5 PROB 36.4%

Form & verdict PPG

POGOŃ GROD. MAZOWIECKI · PPG 1.62

WARTA POZNAŃ · PPG 1.50

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.53 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki (H) 47.5%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV +6.9%

Draw 23.9%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -9.1%

Warta Poznań (A) 28.6%

ODDS 2.70 · IMPLIED 37.0% EV -13.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki face Warta Poznań in Poland - I Liga on Friday, September 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki a 48% chance, the draw 24% and Warta Poznań 29%, so Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki and 1.2 for Warta Poznań (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki are averaging 1.62 points per game versus 1.50 for Warta Poznań. The best value bet our model finds is RES_H/O15, with an expected value of +24.6%.

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki vs Warta Poznań Prediction— Poland - I Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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