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Leicester City vs Millwall Prediction— England - Championship

Regular Season - 45 ·Friday, April 24, 2026, 19:00

Leicester City

PPG 1.23 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Millwall

PPG 1.82 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 53.1% vs bookmaker-implied 57.1%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.3%0-19.9%0-26.6%0-33.0%0-4+1.3%1 1-09.3%1-112.5%1-28.4%1-33.8%1-4+1.7%2 2-05.9%2-17.9%2-25.3%2-32.4%2-4+1.1%3 3-02.5%3-13.4%3-22.3%3-31.0%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-01.0%4+-11.4%4+-20.9%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.1% 22.0% 4.55 +59.7%

Draw 26.3% 26.3% 3.80 -0.1%

Away win 38.6% 58.5% 1.71 -34.0%

Over 2.5 48.5% 55.6% 1.80 -12.7%

Over 3.5 26.7% 33.3% 3.00 -19.9%

BTTS 53.1% 57.1% 1.75 -7.1%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 46 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 46%

Score Hit 54%

ROI -12.7%

Bet Hit 54%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 21%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob53.1%

A 39% / xG 1.3-1.3 / O2.5 48% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 12.5%

#2 0–1 9.9%

#3 1–0 9.3%

#4 1–2 8.4%

#5 2–1 7.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Leicester City1.3

Millwall1.3

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 48.5% · O3.5 PROB 26.7%

Form & verdict PPG

LEICESTER CITY · PPG 1.23

MILLWALL · PPG 1.82

✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum

90%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: GOOD form (1.82) vs Home AVERAGE (1.23)

Win probability 1X2

Leicester City (H) 35.1%

ODDS 4.55 · IMPLIED 22.0% EV +59.7%

Draw 26.3%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -0.1%

Millwall (A) 38.6%

ODDS 1.71 · IMPLIED 58.5% EV -34.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Leicester City face Millwall in England - Championship on Friday, April 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Leicester City a 35% chance, the draw 26% and Millwall 39%, so Millwall are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Leicester City and 1.3 for Millwall (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 49% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Leicester City are averaging 1.23 points per game versus 1.82 for Millwall. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +59.7%. This match finished 1-1.

Leicester City vs Millwall Prediction— England - Championship

Match Preview & Prediction

More England - Championship Predictions