Leicester City vs Millwall Prediction— England - Championship

England - Championship Regular Season - 45 King Power Stadium· Leicester Friday, April 24, 2026 19:00

Leicester City PPG 1.23

1-1 HIT MostLikelyScore

Millwall PPG 1.82

Home· +59.7% ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum

90% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Leicester City face Millwall in England - Championship on Friday, April 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Leicester City a 35% chance, the draw 26% and Millwall 39%, so Millwall are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Leicester City and 1.3 for Millwall (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 49% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Leicester City are averaging 1.23 points per game versus 1.82 for Millwall. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +59.7%. This match finished 1-1.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 35.1%

Odds: 4.55 EV: +59.7%

Draw 26.3%

Odds: 3.80 EV: -0.1%

Away 38.6%

Odds: 1.71 EV: -34.0%

Model lean: BTTS Not tracked as an official bet.

Result: Draw ✘

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 48.5% Odds: 1.80 -12.7%

Over 3.5 26.7% Odds: 3.00 -19.9%

BTTS 53.1% Odds: 1.75 -7.1%

O2.5 UNDER → UNDER ✔ BTTS YES → YES ✔

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1 ✔

2nd 0-1 ✘

3rd 1-0 ✘

4th 1-2 ✘

5th 2-1 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Leicester City

1.27

Millwall

1.34

Model SuggestionBTTS -7.1% NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans BTTS, but EV is -7.1% at these odds — not a recommended bet. 
Highest raw EV: Home (+59.7%) — probability too low to qualify.

League Track Record ↗

Based on 46 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5/Under 59%

BTTS/No 46%

Score Hit 54%

ROI -1.0%

Bet Hit 56% (16 bets)

Verdict & Form

✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum

90%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: GOOD form (1.82) vs Home AVERAGE (1.23)