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Real Betis vs Real Madrid Prediction— Spain - La Liga

Matchday 32 ·Friday, April 24, 2026, 19:00

Real Betis

PPG 1.73 · HOME

LAST 5

WDWLW

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Real Madrid

PPG 2.00 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLWWW

// Model verdict

BTTS 66% chance

Model probability 61.5% vs bookmaker-implied 67.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.6%0-17.3%0-25.7%0-33.0%0-4+1.7%1 1-07.0%1-110.9%1-28.6%1-34.5%1-4+2.5%2 2-05.2%2-18.2%2-26.4%2-33.4%2-4+1.9%3 3-02.6%3-14.1%3-23.2%3-31.7%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-01.4%4+-12.1%4+-21.7%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.6% 27.8% 3.60 +31.8%

Draw 24.0% 25.0% 4.00 -4.0%

Away win 39.5% 54.3% 1.84 -27.3%

Over 2.5 59.2% 66.7% 1.50 -11.2%

Over 3.5 36.8% 44.4% 2.25 -17.2%

BTTS 61.5% 67.6% 1.48 -9.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 94 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 52%

ROI -2.3%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 45%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob61.5%

A 40% / xG 1.5-1.6 / O2.5 59% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 10.9%

#2 1–2 8.6%

#3 2–1 8.2%

#4 0–1 7.3%

#5 1–0 7.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Real Betis1.5

Real Madrid1.6

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.2% · O3.5 PROB 36.8%

Form & verdict PPG

REAL BETIS · PPG 1.73

REAL MADRID · PPG 2.00

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

Chance this pick lands

66%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.73), Away EXCELLENT (2.00)

Win probability 1X2

Real Betis (H) 36.6%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV +31.8%

Draw 24.0%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -4.0%

Real Madrid (A) 39.5%

ODDS 1.84 · IMPLIED 54.3% EV -27.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Real Betis face Real Madrid in Spain - La Liga on Friday, April 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Real Betis a 37% chance, the draw 24% and Real Madrid 40%, so Real Madrid are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Real Betis and 1.6 for Real Madrid (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Real Betis are averaging 1.73 points per game versus 2.00 for Real Madrid. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +31.8%. This match finished 1-1.

Real Betis vs Real Madrid Prediction— Spain - La Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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