Today / Belgium - Jupiler Pro League / Charleroi vs KV Mechelen

Charleroi vs KV Mechelen Prediction— Belgium - Jupiler Pro League

Matchday 3 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 16:15

Charleroi

PPG 1.59 · HOME

LAST 5

WWWW ·

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

KV Mechelen

PPG 1.06 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDLD ·

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 54.2% vs bookmaker-implied 56.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.2%0-15.7%0-22.7%0-30.8%0-4+0.2%1 1-011.4%1-110.6%1-24.9%1-31.5%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.6%2-19.9%2-24.6%2-31.4%2-4+0.4%3 3-06.6%3-16.1%3-22.8%3-30.9%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-04.7%4+-14.3%4+-22.0%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 54.2% 56.5% 1.77 -4.1%

Draw 23.6% 27.4% 3.65 -8.3%

Away win 22.2% 23.1% 4.33 -2.3%

Over 2.5 53.9% 55.6% 1.80 -3.0%

Over 3.5 31.6% 33.3% 3.00 -5.2%

BTTS 53.0% 58.8% 1.70 -9.9%

Home O1.5 54.9% 56.5% 1.77 -2.8%

Away O1.5 25.3% 31.3% 3.20 -11.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 23 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 74%

BTTS 70%

Score Hit 39%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 39%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob53.0%

H 54% / xG 1.9-0.9 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.6%

#2 2–0✓ 10.6%

#3 2–1 9.9%

#4 1–0 11.4%

#5 0–0 6.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Charleroi1.9

KV Mechelen0.9

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.9% · O3.5 PROB 31.6%

Form & verdict PPG

CHARLEROI · PPG 1.59

KV MECHELEN · PPG 1.06

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.93 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Charleroi (H) 54.2%

ODDS 1.77 · IMPLIED 56.5% EV -4.1%

Draw 23.6%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -8.3%

KV Mechelen (A) 22.2%

ODDS 4.33 · IMPLIED 23.1% EV -2.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Charleroi face KV Mechelen in Belgium - Jupiler Pro League on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Charleroi a 54% chance, the draw 24% and KV Mechelen 22%, so Charleroi are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Charleroi and 0.9 for KV Mechelen (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Charleroi are averaging 1.59 points per game versus 1.06 for KV Mechelen. This match finished 2-0.

Charleroi vs KV Mechelen Prediction— Belgium - Jupiler Pro League

Match Preview & Prediction

More Belgium - Jupiler Pro League Predictions