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Zbrojovka Brno II vs Vsetín Prediction— Czech-Republic - 3. liga - MSFL

MSFL · Matchday 17 ·Wednesday, September 2, 2026, 14:30

Zbrojovka Brno II

PPG 2.04 · HOME

LAST 5

LDWWW

UPCOMING

Vsetín

PPG 0.78 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLLLL 

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.9 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 68.4% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7% — a real, if thin, edge.

+7.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.1%0-12.8%0-21.8%0-30.8%0-4+0.3%1 1-05.4%1-17.0%1-24.6%1-32.0%1-4+0.9%2 2-06.9%2-19.0%2-25.8%2-32.5%2-4+1.1%3 3-05.9%3-17.7%3-25.0%3-32.2%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-06.9%4+-19.0%4+-25.8%4+-32.5%4+-4+1.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 59.5% 66.7% 1.50 -10.8%

Draw 19.1% 23.8% 4.20 -11.9%

Away win 21.4% 21.1% 4.75 +1.0%

Over 2.5 68.4% 63.7% 1.57 +7.4%

Over 3.5 45.0% 46.7% 2.14 -3.7%

BTTS 62.4% 62.5% 1.60 -0.2%

Home O1.5 66.3% 72.5% 1.38 -8.5%

Away O1.5 39.5% 29.9% 3.34 +31.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 30 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 60%

O2.5 63%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 50%

ROI 35.9%

Bet Hit 88%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 69%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.6 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob62.4%

H 60% / xG 2.6-1.3 / O2.5 68% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 9.0%

#2 1–1 7.0%

#3 3–1 7.7%

#4 2–0 6.9%

#5 1–2 4.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Zbrojovka Brno II2.6

Vsetín1.3

COMBINED 3.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 68.4% · O3.5 PROB 45.0%

Form & verdict PPG

ZBROJOVKA BRNO II · PPG 2.04

VSETÍN · PPG 0.78

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.25 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Zbrojovka Brno II (H) 59.5%

ODDS 1.50 · IMPLIED 66.7% EV -10.8%

Draw 19.1%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -11.9%

Vsetín (A) 21.4%

ODDS 4.75 · IMPLIED 21.1% EV +1.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Zbrojovka Brno II face Vsetín in Czech-Republic - 3. liga - MSFL on Wednesday, September 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Zbrojovka Brno II a 60% chance, the draw 19% and Vsetín 21%, so Zbrojovka Brno II are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.6 for Zbrojovka Brno II and 1.3 for Vsetín (3.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 68% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Zbrojovka Brno II are averaging 2.04 points per game versus 0.78 for Vsetín. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +31.9%.

Zbrojovka Brno II vs Vsetín Prediction— Czech-Republic - 3. liga - MSFL

Match Preview & Prediction

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