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Hranice vs Unie Hlubina Prediction— Czech-Republic - 3. liga - MSFL

MSFL · Matchday 17 ·Wednesday, September 2, 2026, 16:00

Hranice

PPG 1.16 · HOME

LAST 5

LLLWW

UPCOMING

Unie Hlubina

PPG 1.60 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWLWL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 65.0% vs bookmaker-implied 60.6% — a real, if thin, edge.

+7.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.3%0-15.3%0-24.4%0-32.4%0-4+1.4%1 1-05.8%1-19.5%1-27.8%1-34.3%1-4+2.5%2 2-05.2%2-18.5%2-27.0%2-33.8%2-4+2.2%3 3-03.1%3-15.1%3-24.1%3-32.3%3-4+1.3%4+ 4+-02.1%4+-13.4%4+-22.8%4+-31.5%4+-4+0.9%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.0% 43.5% 2.30 +8.1%

Draw 22.7% 28.6% 3.50 -12.3%

Away win 30.2% 39.2% 2.55 -23.0%

Over 2.5 65.0% 60.6% 1.65 +7.2%

Over 3.5 44.8% 43.5% 2.30 +3.0%

BTTS 63.5% 69.0% 1.45 -7.9%

Home O1.5 49.9% 48.5% 2.06 +2.8%

Away O1.5 47.9% 52.6% 1.90 -9.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 30 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 60%

O2.5 63%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 50%

ROI 35.9%

Bet Hit 88%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 53%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob63.5%

H 47% / xG 1.8-1.6 / O2.5 65% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 8.5%

#2 1–1 9.5%

#3 1–2 7.8%

#4 2–2 7.0%

#5 2–0 5.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Hranice1.8

Unie Hlubina1.6

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 65.0% · O3.5 PROB 44.8%

Form & verdict PPG

HRANICE · PPG 1.16

UNIE HLUBINA · PPG 1.60

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.15 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Hranice (H) 47.0%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV +8.1%

Draw 22.7%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -12.3%

Unie Hlubina (A) 30.2%

ODDS 2.55 · IMPLIED 39.2% EV -23.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Hranice face Unie Hlubina in Czech-Republic - 3. liga - MSFL on Wednesday, September 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Hranice a 47% chance, the draw 23% and Unie Hlubina 30%, so Hranice are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Hranice and 1.6 for Unie Hlubina (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 65% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Hranice are averaging 1.16 points per game versus 1.60 for Unie Hlubina. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +13.1%.

Hranice vs Unie Hlubina Prediction— Czech-Republic - 3. liga - MSFL

Match Preview & Prediction

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