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Slovácko II vs Vrchovina Prediction— Czech-Republic - 3. liga - MSFL

MSFL · Matchday 17 ·Wednesday, September 2, 2026, 14:30

Slovácko II

PPG 1.52 · HOME

LAST 5

WLWDD

UPCOMING

Vrchovina

PPG 1.40 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLWWW

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 55.9% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.4%0-16.9%0-24.4%0-31.9%0-4+0.8%1 1-08.9%1-111.3%1-27.2%1-33.1%1-4+1.3%2 2-07.3%2-19.3%2-25.9%2-32.5%2-4+1.1%3 3-04.0%3-15.1%3-23.2%3-31.4%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-02.4%4+-13.0%4+-21.9%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.4% 52.6% 1.90 -13.7%

Draw 24.5% 27.8% 3.60 -7.1%

Away win 30.1% 30.8% 3.25 -2.2%

Over 2.5 53.8% 63.7% 1.57 -15.5%

Over 3.5 31.9% 39.7% 2.52 -19.6%

BTTS 55.9% 63.7% 1.57 -12.2%

Home O1.5 48.1% 57.1% 1.75 -15.8%

Away O1.5 37.5% 38.3% 2.61 -2.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 30 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 60%

O2.5 63%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 50%

ROI 35.9%

Bet Hit 88%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 37%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob55.9%

H 45% / xG 1.6-1.3 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.3%

#2 2–1 9.3%

#3 1–2 7.2%

#4 2–0 7.3%

#5 1–0 8.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Slovácko II1.6

Vrchovina1.3

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.8% · O3.5 PROB 31.9%

Form & verdict PPG

SLOVÁCKO II · PPG 1.52

VRCHOVINA · PPG 1.40

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.37 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Slovácko II (H) 45.4%

ODDS 1.90 · IMPLIED 52.6% EV -13.7%

Draw 24.5%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -7.1%

Vrchovina (A) 30.1%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -2.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Slovácko II face Vrchovina in Czech-Republic - 3. liga - MSFL on Wednesday, September 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Slovácko II a 45% chance, the draw 25% and Vrchovina 30%, so Slovácko II are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Slovácko II and 1.3 for Vrchovina (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Slovácko II are averaging 1.52 points per game versus 1.40 for Vrchovina. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +4.9%.

Slovácko II vs Vrchovina Prediction— Czech-Republic - 3. liga - MSFL

Match Preview & Prediction

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