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RB Leipzig vs Union Berlin Prediction— Germany - Bundesliga

Regular Season - 31 ·Friday, April 24, 2026, 18:30

RB Leipzig

PPG 2.13 · HOME

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Union Berlin

PPG 0.93 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 74.9% vs bookmaker-implied 70.4% — a real, if thin, edge.

+6.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.0%0-12.6%0-21.1%0-30.3%0-4+0.1%1 1-08.0%1-16.9%1-23.0%1-30.9%1-4+0.2%2 2-010.5%2-19.1%2-24.0%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-09.2%3-18.0%3-23.5%3-31.0%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-011.3%4+-19.8%4+-24.3%4+-31.2%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 74.9% 70.4% 1.42 +6.4%

Draw 15.1% 21.5% 4.65 -29.8%

Away win 10.0% 15.2% 6.60 -34.0%

Over 2.5 67.8% 66.7% 1.50 +1.7%

Over 3.5 46.2% 44.4% 2.25 +4.0%

BTTS 53.8% 60.6% 1.65 -11.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 45 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 73%

BTTS 76%

Score Hit 49%

ROI 3.3%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 66%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)2.6 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob53.8%

H 75% / xG 2.6-0.9 / O2.5 68% / BTTS 54%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 10.5%

#2 3–0 9.2%

#3 2–1 9.1%

#4 1–0 8.0%

#5 3–1✓ 8.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

RB Leipzig2.6

Union Berlin0.9

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.8% · O3.5 PROB 46.2%

Form & verdict PPG

RB LEIPZIG · PPG 2.13

UNION BERLIN · PPG 0.93

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - 🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

68%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.13), Away POOR (0.93) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

RB Leipzig (H) 74.9%

ODDS 1.42 · IMPLIED 70.4% EV +6.4%

Draw 15.1%

ODDS 4.65 · IMPLIED 21.5% EV -29.8%

Union Berlin (A) 10.0%

ODDS 6.60 · IMPLIED 15.2% EV -34.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

RB Leipzig face Union Berlin in Germany - Bundesliga on Friday, April 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives RB Leipzig a 75% chance, the draw 15% and Union Berlin 10%, so RB Leipzig are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.6 for RB Leipzig and 0.9 for Union Berlin (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 68% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, RB Leipzig are averaging 2.13 points per game versus 0.93 for Union Berlin. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +6.4%. This match finished 3-1.

RB Leipzig vs Union Berlin Prediction— Germany - Bundesliga

Match Preview & Prediction

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