Today / Norway - 3. Division - Girone 1 / Nordstrand vs SF Grei

Nordstrand vs SF Grei Prediction— Norway - 3. Division - Girone 1

Tuesday, September 1, 2026, 16:30

Nordstrand

PPG 0.88 · HOME

LAST 5

LWLLL

3 – 5

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

SF Grei

PPG 0.38 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLLLW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 5.6 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.4%0-10.7%0-20.7%0-30.5%0-4+0.4%1 1-01.4%1-12.7%1-22.6%1-31.7%1-4+1.3%2 2-02.5%2-14.9%2-24.7%2-33.1%2-4+2.3%3 3-03.0%3-15.9%3-25.7%3-33.7%3-4+2.8%4+ 4+-07.0%4+-113.7%4+-213.3%4+-38.6%4+-4+6.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 63.4% — — —

Draw 15.3% — — —

Away win 21.3% — — —

Over 2.5 83.0% — — —

Over 3.5 65.6% — — —

BTTS 69.7% — — —

Home O1.5 78.2% — — —

Away O1.5 58.3% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 48 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 60%

O2.5 85%

BTTS 81%

Score Hit 33%

ROI -35.5%

Bet Hit 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–1 5.9%

#2 3–2 5.7%

#3 2–2 4.7%

#4 4–1 5.3%

#5 4–2 5.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Nordstrand3.6

SF Grei1.9

COMBINED 5.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 83.0% · O3.5 PROB 65.6%

Form & verdict PPG

NORDSTRAND · PPG 0.88

SF GREI · PPG 0.38

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

66%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +1.69 for Home, form 0.88 vs 0.38 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Nordstrand (H) 63.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 15.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

SF Grei (A) 21.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Nordstrand face SF Grei in Norway - 3. Division - Girone 1 on Tuesday, September 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Nordstrand a 63% chance, the draw 15% and SF Grei 21%, so Nordstrand are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.6 for Nordstrand and 1.9 for SF Grei (5.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-1. There is a 83% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 70% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Nordstrand are averaging 0.88 points per game versus 0.38 for SF Grei. This match finished 3-5.

Nordstrand vs SF Grei Prediction— Norway - 3. Division - Girone 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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