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Universitatea Cluj vs Petrolul Ploiesti Prediction— Romania - Liga I

Matchday 7 ·Friday, August 28, 2026, 18:00

Universitatea Cluj

PPG 2.25 · HOME

LAST 5

LWWLL

2 – 3

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Petrolul Ploiesti

PPG 1.11 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWWLW

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 55.0% vs bookmaker-implied 59.9%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.7%0-15.9%0-22.0%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-015.4%1-110.4%1-23.5%1-30.8%1-4+0.2%2 2-013.5%2-19.2%2-23.1%2-30.7%2-4+0.1%3 3-08.0%3-15.4%3-21.8%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-05.2%4+-13.5%4+-21.2%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 55.0% 59.9% 1.67 -8.2%

Draw 23.6% 28.6% 3.50 -10.4%

Away win 21.4% 20.4% 4.90 +2.9%

Over 2.5 50.5% 51.3% 1.95 -1.5%

Over 3.5 28.7% 29.4% 3.40 -1.5%

BTTS 49.0% 54.6% 1.83 -10.3%

Home O1.5 48.9% 54.1% 1.85 -9.5%

Away O1.5 18.2% 25.6% 3.90 -17.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 25 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 28%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-3

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob49.0%

H 55% / xG 1.8-0.7 / O2.5 50% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 15.4%

#2 2–0 13.5%

#3 1–1 10.4%

#4 0–0 8.7%

#5 2–1 9.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Universitatea Cluj1.8

Petrolul Ploiesti0.7

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.5% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

UNIVERSITATEA CLUJ · PPG 2.25

PETROLUL PLOIESTI · PPG 1.11

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.09 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Universitatea Cluj (H) 55.0%

ODDS 1.67 · IMPLIED 59.9% EV -8.2%

Draw 23.6%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -10.4%

Petrolul Ploiesti (A) 21.4%

ODDS 4.90 · IMPLIED 20.4% EV +2.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Universitatea Cluj face Petrolul Ploiesti in Romania - Liga I on Friday, August 28, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Universitatea Cluj a 55% chance, the draw 24% and Petrolul Ploiesti 21%, so Universitatea Cluj are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Universitatea Cluj and 0.7 for Petrolul Ploiesti (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Universitatea Cluj are averaging 2.25 points per game versus 1.11 for Petrolul Ploiesti. This match finished 2-3.

Universitatea Cluj vs Petrolul Ploiesti Prediction— Romania - Liga I

Match Preview & Prediction

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