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Oţelul vs Arges Pitesti Prediction— Romania - Liga I

Matchday 6 ·Monday, August 24, 2026, 18:30

Oţelul

PPG 1.67 · HOME

LAST 5

DLDWD

1 – 0

FULL TIME

Arges Pitesti

PPG 1.45 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWDLL

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-013.0%0-110.8%0-24.5%0-31.2%0-4+0.3%1 1-015.7%1-113.1%1-25.4%1-31.5%1-4+0.4%2 2-09.5%2-17.9%2-23.3%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-03.9%3-13.2%3-21.3%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.5%4+-11.3%4+-20.5%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 42.7% 42.0% 2.38 +1.6%

Draw 28.5% 35.7% 2.80 -12.1%

Away win 28.9% 31.3% 3.20 -4.5%

Over 2.5 41.3% 40.0% 2.50 +3.3%

Over 3.5 20.7% 20.0% 5.00 +2.1%

BTTS 47.2% 47.6% 2.10 -0.9%

Home O1.5 32.6% 36.4% 2.75 -10.3%

Away O1.5 23.5% 28.6% 3.50 -10.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 25 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 33%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob47.2%

H 43% / xG 1.2-0.8 / U2.5 41% / NoBTTS 47%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0✓ 15.7%

#2 1–1 13.1%

#3 0–0 13.0%

#4 0–1 10.8%

#5 2–0 9.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Oţelul1.2

Arges Pitesti0.8

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 41.3% · O3.5 PROB 20.7%

Form & verdict PPG

OŢELUL · PPG 1.67

ARGES PITESTI · PPG 1.45

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear value

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.38, combined xG 2.04 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Oţelul (H) 42.7%

ODDS 2.38 · IMPLIED 42.0% EV +1.6%

Draw 28.5%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV -12.1%

Arges Pitesti (A) 28.9%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -4.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Oţelul face Arges Pitesti in Romania - Liga I on Monday, August 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Oţelul a 43% chance, the draw 28% and Arges Pitesti 29%, so Oţelul are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Oţelul and 0.8 for Arges Pitesti (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 41% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Oţelul are averaging 1.67 points per game versus 1.45 for Arges Pitesti. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +9.8%. This match finished 1-0.

Oţelul vs Arges Pitesti Prediction— Romania - Liga I

Match Preview & Prediction

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