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Konnerud vs Bærum Prediction— Norway - 3. Division - Girone 1

Sunday, August 30, 2026, 12:00

Konnerud

PPG 1.29 · HOME

LAST 5

LLWLD

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · AWAY O1.5

Bærum

PPG 1.62 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLWWD

// Model verdict

Away Over 1.5

xG gap -1.60 for Away, form 1.29 vs 1.62

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.8%0-12.6%0-24.2%0-34.5%0-4+8.1%1 1-01.3%1-14.2%1-26.8%1-37.2%1-4+12.9%2 2-01.1%2-13.4%2-25.4%2-35.7%2-4+10.3%3 3-00.6%3-11.8%3-22.9%3-33.1%3-4+5.5%4+ 4+-00.3%4+-11.0%4+-21.6%4+-31.7%4+-4+3.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 16.1% — — —

Draw 15.6% — — —

Away win 68.4% — — —

Over 2.5 76.6% — — —

Over 3.5 56.2% — — —

BTTS 69.4% — — —

Home O1.5 48.0% — — —

Away O1.5 79.1% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 48 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 60%

O2.5 85%

BTTS 81%

Score Hit 33%

ROI -35.5%

Bet Hit 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–3 7.2%

#2 1–2 6.8%

#3 1–4 5.8%

#4 2–3 5.7%

#5 2–2 5.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Konnerud1.6

Bærum3.2

COMBINED 4.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 76.6% · O3.5 PROB 56.2%

Form & verdict PPG

KONNERUD · PPG 1.29

BÆRUM · PPG 1.62

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

63%

UPSET_VALUE

xG gap -1.60 for Away, form 1.29 vs 1.62

Win probability 1X2

Konnerud (H) 16.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 15.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Bærum (A) 68.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Konnerud face Bærum in Norway - 3. Division - Girone 1 on Sunday, August 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Konnerud a 16% chance, the draw 16% and Bærum 68%, so Bærum are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Konnerud and 3.2 for Bærum (4.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-3. There is a 77% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 69% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Konnerud are averaging 1.29 points per game versus 1.62 for Bærum. This match finished 1-1.

Konnerud vs Bærum Prediction— Norway - 3. Division - Girone 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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