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Railway vs Mohun Bagan Prediction— India - Calcutta Premier Division

Regular season ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 09:30

Railway

PPG 1.08 · HOME

LAST 5

LWDLW

1 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · AWAY

Mohun Bagan

PPG 1.97 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWWWD

// Model verdict

Away 68% chance

xG gap -1.59 for Away, form 1.08 vs 1.97

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.6%0-110.7%0-212.5%0-39.7%0-4+9.8%1 1-03.4%1-18.0%1-29.3%1-37.3%1-4+7.3%2 2-01.3%2-13.0%2-23.5%2-32.7%2-4+2.7%3 3-00.3%3-10.7%3-20.9%3-30.7%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.2%4+-20.2%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 12.8% — — —

Draw 19.0% — — —

Away win 68.2% — — —

Over 2.5 62.5% — — —

Over 3.5 39.3% — — —

BTTS 54.3% — — —

Home O1.5 30.9% — — —

Away O1.5 67.8% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 63%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 43%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–2 12.5%

#2 0–3 9.7%

#3 1–1 8.0%

#4 0–1 10.7%

#5 1–2 9.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Railway0.7

Mohun Bagan2.3

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 62.5% · O3.5 PROB 39.3%

Form & verdict PPG

RAILWAY · PPG 1.08

MOHUN BAGAN · PPG 1.97

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

68%

UPSET_VALUE

xG gap -1.59 for Away, form 1.08 vs 1.97

Win probability 1X2

Railway (H) 12.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 19.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Mohun Bagan (A) 68.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Railway face Mohun Bagan in India - Calcutta Premier Division on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Railway a 13% chance, the draw 19% and Mohun Bagan 68%, so Mohun Bagan are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.7 for Railway and 2.3 for Mohun Bagan (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-2. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Railway are averaging 1.08 points per game versus 1.97 for Mohun Bagan. This match finished 1-3.

Railway vs Mohun Bagan Prediction— India - Calcutta Premier Division

Match Preview & Prediction

More India - Calcutta Premier Division Predictions