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United vs Police Prediction— India - Calcutta Premier Division

Regular season ·Tuesday, August 25, 2026, 09:30

United

PPG 1.40 · HOME

LAST 5

WDWLW

3 – 0

FULL TIME

Police

PPG 1.80 · AWAY

LAST 5

DDDLL

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-019.4%0-120.0%0-210.3%0-33.5%0-4+1.1%1 1-011.8%1-112.2%1-26.3%1-32.2%1-4+0.7%2 2-03.6%2-13.7%2-21.9%2-30.7%2-4+0.2%3 3-00.7%3-10.8%3-20.4%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.1%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 26.7% 37.7% 2.65 -17.5%

Draw 31.5% 32.3% 3.10 -2.4%

Away win 41.7% 42.0% 2.38 -0.8%

Over 2.5 34.2% 50.0% 2.00 -31.6%

Over 3.5 18.0% 25.0% 4.00 -16.8%

BTTS 43.2% 55.6% 1.80 -22.2%

Home O1.5 30.9% 37.0% 2.70 -16.6%

Away O1.5 32.6% 40.7% 2.46 -19.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 48 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 60%

O2.5 58%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 44%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 38%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-0

xG (home)0.6 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob43.2%

A 42% / xG 0.6-1.0 / U2.5 34% / NoBTTS 43%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 19.4%

#2 0–1 20.0%

#3 1–0 11.8%

#4 1–1 12.2%

#5 0–2 10.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

United0.6

Police1.0

COMBINED 1.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 34.2% · O3.5 PROB 18.0%

Form & verdict PPG

UNITED · PPG 1.40

POLICE · PPG 1.80

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear v...

45%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.42, combined xG 1.64 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

United (H) 26.7%

ODDS 2.65 · IMPLIED 37.7% EV -17.5%

Draw 31.5%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -2.4%

Police (A) 41.7%

ODDS 2.38 · IMPLIED 42.0% EV -0.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

United face Police in India - Calcutta Premier Division on Tuesday, August 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives United a 27% chance, the draw 32% and Police 42%, so Police are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.6 for United and 1.0 for Police (1.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 34% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 43% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, United are averaging 1.40 points per game versus 1.80 for Police. This match finished 3-0.

United vs Police Prediction— India - Calcutta Premier Division

Match Preview & Prediction

More India - Calcutta Premier Division Predictions