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Real Espana vs Atlético Choloma Prediction— Honduras - Liga Nacional

Apertura · Matchday 5 ·Sunday, August 30, 2026, 23:15

Real Espana

PPG 1.91 · HOME

LAST 5

WWDDW

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME O1.5

Atlético Choloma

PPG 0.65 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLLWL

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 56.3% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.9%0-14.8%0-22.0%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-011.9%1-19.7%1-23.9%1-31.1%1-4+0.3%2 2-012.0%2-19.8%2-24.0%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-08.0%3-16.5%3-22.7%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-06.4%4+-15.2%4+-22.1%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 56.2% 67.6% 1.48 -16.8%

Draw 22.6% 25.6% 3.90 -7.1%

Away win 21.3% 16.7% 6.00 +16.7%

Over 2.5 53.5% 54.1% 1.85 -1.0%

Over 3.5 31.5% 31.3% 3.20 +0.8%

BTTS 52.7% 51.8% 1.93 +1.7%

Home O1.5 56.3% 61.7% 1.62 -8.8%

Away O1.5 23.5% 23.1% 4.33 +1.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 9 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 67%

O2.5 44%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 40%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob52.7%

H 56% / xG 2.0-0.8 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.7%

#2 2–0 12.0%

#3 1–0 11.9%

#4 2–1✓ 9.8%

#5 0–0 5.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Real Espana2.0

Atlético Choloma0.8

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.5% · O3.5 PROB 31.5%

Form & verdict PPG

REAL ESPANA · PPG 1.91

ATLÉTICO CHOLOMA · PPG 0.65

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.20 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Real Espana (H) 56.2%

ODDS 1.48 · IMPLIED 67.6% EV -16.8%

Draw 22.6%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV -7.1%

Atlético Choloma (A) 21.3%

ODDS 6.00 · IMPLIED 16.7% EV +16.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Real Espana face Atlético Choloma in Honduras - Liga Nacional on Sunday, August 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Real Espana a 56% chance, the draw 23% and Atlético Choloma 21%, so Real Espana are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Real Espana and 0.8 for Atlético Choloma (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Real Espana are averaging 1.91 points per game versus 0.65 for Atlético Choloma. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +13.3%. This match finished 2-1.

Real Espana vs Atlético Choloma Prediction— Honduras - Liga Nacional

Match Preview & Prediction

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