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Sportivo Belgrano vs Bartolomé Mitre Prediction— Argentina - Torneo Federal A

Winners Stage · Matchday 6 ·Sunday, August 30, 2026, 19:05

Sportivo Belgrano

PPG 1.55 · HOME

LAST 5

DLLLW

2 – 0

FULL TIME

Bartolomé Mitre

PPG 0.80 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDLLL

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-020.2%0-110.0%0-22.5%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-022.3%1-111.0%1-22.7%1-30.4%1-4+0.1%2 2-012.4%2-16.1%2-21.5%2-30.2%2-4+0.0%3 3-04.6%3-12.3%3-20.6%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-01.6%4+-10.8%4+-20.2%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.5% 66.7% 1.50 -31.8%

Draw 31.5% 31.3% 3.20 +0.8%

Away win 23.0% 14.3% 7.00 +36.6%

Over 2.5 35.0% 38.2% 2.62 -8.3%

Over 3.5 18.0% 20.0% 5.00 -6.0%

BTTS 42.6% 36.4% 2.75 +17.2%

Home O1.5 31.0% 50.0% 2.00 -38.0%

Away O1.5 15.1% 14.3% 7.00 +3.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 122 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 72%

BTTS 62%

Score Hit 63%

ROI 3.4%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 41%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob42.6%

H 46% / xG 1.1-0.5 / U2.5 35% / NoBTTS 43%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 22.3%

#2 0–0 20.2%

#3 0–1 10.0%

#4 2–0✓ 12.4%

#5 1–1 11.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sportivo Belgrano1.1

Bartolomé Mitre0.5

COMBINED 1.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 35.0% · O3.5 PROB 18.0%

Form & verdict PPG

SPORTIVO BELGRANO · PPG 1.55

BARTOLOMÉ MITRE · PPG 0.80

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.61 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Sportivo Belgrano (H) 45.5%

ODDS 1.50 · IMPLIED 66.7% EV -31.8%

Draw 31.5%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV +0.8%

Bartolomé Mitre (A) 23.0%

ODDS 7.00 · IMPLIED 14.3% EV +36.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sportivo Belgrano face Bartolomé Mitre in Argentina - Torneo Federal A on Sunday, August 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sportivo Belgrano a 46% chance, the draw 32% and Bartolomé Mitre 23%, so Sportivo Belgrano are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Sportivo Belgrano and 0.5 for Bartolomé Mitre (1.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 43% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sportivo Belgrano are averaging 1.55 points per game versus 0.80 for Bartolomé Mitre. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +19.6%. This match finished 2-0.

Sportivo Belgrano vs Bartolomé Mitre Prediction— Argentina - Torneo Federal A

Match Preview & Prediction

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