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Santamarina vs Circulo Deportivo Prediction— Argentina - Torneo Federal A

Losers Stage · Matchday 6 ·Sunday, August 30, 2026, 21:00

Santamarina

PPG 1.20 · HOME

LAST 5

LLWLW

2 – 1

FULL TIME

Circulo Deportivo

PPG 0.45 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDDLL

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-028.9%0-111.4%0-22.2%0-30.3%0-4+0.0%1 1-024.5%1-19.7%1-21.9%1-30.2%1-4+0.0%2 2-010.4%2-14.1%2-20.8%2-30.1%2-4+0.0%3 3-02.9%3-11.2%3-20.2%3-30.0%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-10.3%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 43.2% 51.3% 1.95 -15.8%

Draw 33.9% 34.5% 2.90 -1.7%

Away win 22.9% 25.6% 3.90 -6.4%

Over 2.5 28.3% 36.4% 2.75 -13.3%

Over 3.5 11.5% 18.2% 5.50 -22.1%

BTTS 31.1% 40.0% 2.50 -22.3%

Home O1.5 30.9% 38.2% 2.62 -19.0%

Away O1.5 11.1% 22.2% 4.50 -30.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 122 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 72%

BTTS 62%

Score Hit 63%

ROI 3.4%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 42%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)0.8 xG (away)0.4 BTTS prob31.1%

H 43% / xG 0.8-0.4 / U2.5 28% / NoBTTS 31%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 28.9%

#2 1–0 24.5%

#3 0–1 11.4%

#4 2–0 10.4%

#5 1–1 9.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Santamarina0.8

Circulo Deportivo0.4

COMBINED 1.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 28.3% · O3.5 PROB 11.5%

Form & verdict PPG

SANTAMARINA · PPG 1.20

CIRCULO DEPORTIVO · PPG 0.45

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear v...

45%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.45, combined xG 1.24 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Santamarina (H) 43.2%

ODDS 1.95 · IMPLIED 51.3% EV -15.8%

Draw 33.9%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -1.7%

Circulo Deportivo (A) 22.9%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV -6.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Santamarina face Circulo Deportivo in Argentina - Torneo Federal A on Sunday, August 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Santamarina a 43% chance, the draw 34% and Circulo Deportivo 23%, so Santamarina are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.8 for Santamarina and 0.4 for Circulo Deportivo (1.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 28% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 31% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Santamarina are averaging 1.20 points per game versus 0.45 for Circulo Deportivo. This match finished 2-1.

Santamarina vs Circulo Deportivo Prediction— Argentina - Torneo Federal A

Match Preview & Prediction

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