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Germinal de Rawson vs Deportivo Rincon Prediction— Argentina - Torneo Federal A

Losers Stage · Matchday 6 ·Sunday, August 30, 2026, 18:00

Germinal de Rawson

PPG 2.00 · HOME

LAST 5

DWLDD

0 – 0

FULL TIME

Deportivo Rincon

PPG 0.90 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDLWD

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-016.8%0-110.0%0-23.0%0-30.6%0-4+0.1%1 1-019.9%1-111.9%1-23.6%1-30.7%1-4+0.1%2 2-011.8%2-17.1%2-22.1%2-30.4%2-4+0.1%3 3-04.7%3-12.8%3-20.8%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-01.8%4+-11.1%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.6% 45.5% 2.20 +4.7%

Draw 31.3% 34.5% 2.90 -9.2%

Away win 21.1% 31.3% 3.20 -19.5%

Over 2.5 35.2% 38.2% 2.62 -7.8%

Over 3.5 18.0% 20.0% 5.00 -6.0%

BTTS 42.6% 44.4% 2.25 -4.2%

Home O1.5 32.1% 36.4% 2.75 -11.7%

Away O1.5 16.7% 26.7% 3.75 -22.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 122 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 72%

BTTS 62%

Score Hit 63%

ROI 3.4%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 45%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob42.6%

H 48% / xG 1.2-0.6 / U2.5 35% / NoBTTS 43%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 19.9%

#2 0–0✓ 16.8%

#3 1–1 11.9%

#4 2–0 11.8%

#5 0–1 10.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Germinal de Rawson1.2

Deportivo Rincon0.6

COMBINED 1.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 35.2% · O3.5 PROB 18.0%

Form & verdict PPG

GERMINAL DE RAWSON · PPG 2.00

DEPORTIVO RINCON · PPG 0.90

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.59 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Germinal de Rawson (H) 47.6%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV +4.7%

Draw 31.3%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -9.2%

Deportivo Rincon (A) 21.1%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -19.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Germinal de Rawson face Deportivo Rincon in Argentina - Torneo Federal A on Sunday, August 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Germinal de Rawson a 48% chance, the draw 31% and Deportivo Rincon 21%, so Germinal de Rawson are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Germinal de Rawson and 0.6 for Deportivo Rincon (1.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 43% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Germinal de Rawson are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 0.90 for Deportivo Rincon. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +9.0%. This match finished 0-0.

Germinal de Rawson vs Deportivo Rincon Prediction— Argentina - Torneo Federal A

Match Preview & Prediction

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