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Kimberley Mar del Plata vs Alvarado Prediction— Argentina - Torneo Federal A

Winners Stage · Matchday 6 ·Sunday, August 30, 2026, 18:00

Kimberley Mar del Plata

PPG 1.90 · HOME

LAST 5

WLWLL

0 – 2

FULL TIME

Alvarado

PPG 1.10 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWDDW

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-026.4%0-114.1%0-23.8%0-30.7%0-4+0.1%1 1-021.1%1-111.2%1-23.0%1-30.5%1-4+0.1%2 2-08.4%2-14.5%2-21.2%2-30.2%2-4+0.0%3 3-02.2%3-11.2%3-20.3%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-10.3%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 39.6% 40.8% 2.45 -3.0%

Draw 34.8% 37.0% 2.70 -6.0%

Away win 25.6% 33.3% 3.00 -13.9%

Over 2.5 34.2% 30.8% 3.25 +11.2%

Over 3.5 13.2% 15.4% 6.50 -8.5%

BTTS 42.6% 40.0% 2.50 +6.5%

Home O1.5 30.9% 28.6% 3.50 +8.2%

Away O1.5 15.1% 25.0% 4.00 -23.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 122 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 72%

BTTS 62%

Score Hit 63%

ROI 3.4%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 34%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)0.8 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob42.6%

H 40% / xG 0.8-0.5 / U2.5 34% / NoBTTS 43%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 26.4%

#2 1–0 21.1%

#3 0–1 14.1%

#4 1–1 11.2%

#5 2–0 8.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Kimberley Mar del Plata0.8

Alvarado0.5

COMBINED 1.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 34.2% · O3.5 PROB 13.2%

Form & verdict PPG

KIMBERLEY MAR DEL PLATA · PPG 1.90

ALVARADO · PPG 1.10

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.26, combined xG 1.33 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Kimberley Mar del Plata (H) 39.6%

ODDS 2.45 · IMPLIED 40.8% EV -3.0%

Draw 34.8%

ODDS 2.70 · IMPLIED 37.0% EV -6.0%

Alvarado (A) 25.6%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -13.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Kimberley Mar del Plata face Alvarado in Argentina - Torneo Federal A on Sunday, August 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Kimberley Mar del Plata a 40% chance, the draw 35% and Alvarado 26%, so Kimberley Mar del Plata are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.8 for Kimberley Mar del Plata and 0.5 for Alvarado (1.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 34% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 43% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Kimberley Mar del Plata are averaging 1.90 points per game versus 1.10 for Alvarado. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +11.2%. This match finished 0-2.

Kimberley Mar del Plata vs Alvarado Prediction— Argentina - Torneo Federal A

Match Preview & Prediction

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