Today / Argentina - Torneo Federal A / Gimnasia Chivilcoy vs Sarmiento de La Banda

Gimnasia Chivilcoy vs Sarmiento de La Banda Prediction— Argentina - Torneo Federal A

Winners Stage · Matchday 6 ·Sunday, August 30, 2026, 19:00

Gimnasia Chivilcoy

PPG 2.09 · HOME

LAST 5

DLDWW

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Sarmiento de La Banda

PPG 0.90 · AWAY

LAST 5

DDLWL

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 52.0% vs bookmaker-implied 48.8% — a real, if thin, edge.

+6.6% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-015.7%0-17.5%0-21.8%0-30.3%0-4+0.0%1 1-021.6%1-110.3%1-22.5%1-30.4%1-4+0.1%2 2-014.8%2-17.1%2-21.7%2-30.3%2-4+0.0%3 3-06.8%3-13.2%3-20.8%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-03.1%4+-11.5%4+-20.4%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.0% 48.8% 2.05 +6.6%

Draw 26.8% 34.5% 2.90 -13.4%

Away win 21.3% 27.8% 3.60 -14.0%

Over 2.5 37.8% 36.4% 2.75 +4.0%

Over 3.5 18.0% 18.2% 5.50 -0.6%

BTTS 42.6% 40.0% 2.50 +6.5%

Home O1.5 38.0% 36.4% 2.75 +4.5%

Away O1.5 15.1% 22.2% 4.50 -19.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 122 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 72%

BTTS 62%

Score Hit 63%

ROI 3.4%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 47%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob42.6%

H 52% / xG 1.4-0.5 / U2.5 38% / NoBTTS 43%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0✓ 21.6%

#2 0–0 15.7%

#3 2–0 14.8%

#4 0–1 7.5%

#5 1–1 10.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Gimnasia Chivilcoy1.4

Sarmiento de La Banda0.5

COMBINED 1.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 37.8% · O3.5 PROB 18.0%

Form & verdict PPG

GIMNASIA CHIVILCOY · PPG 2.09

SARMIENTO DE LA BANDA · PPG 0.90

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.89 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Gimnasia Chivilcoy (H) 52.0%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV +6.6%

Draw 26.8%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -13.4%

Sarmiento de La Banda (A) 21.3%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -14.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Gimnasia Chivilcoy face Sarmiento de La Banda in Argentina - Torneo Federal A on Sunday, August 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Gimnasia Chivilcoy a 52% chance, the draw 27% and Sarmiento de La Banda 21%, so Gimnasia Chivilcoy are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Gimnasia Chivilcoy and 0.5 for Sarmiento de La Banda (1.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 38% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 43% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Gimnasia Chivilcoy are averaging 2.09 points per game versus 0.90 for Sarmiento de La Banda. The best value bet our model finds is RES_H/O15, with an expected value of +13.1%. This match finished 1-0.

Gimnasia Chivilcoy vs Sarmiento de La Banda Prediction— Argentina - Torneo Federal A

Match Preview & Prediction

More Argentina - Torneo Federal A Predictions