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Atenas vs Olimpo Bahia Blanca Prediction— Argentina - Torneo Federal A

Winners Stage · Matchday 6 ·Sunday, August 30, 2026, 19:30

Atenas

PPG 1.60 · HOME

LAST 5

LWWDW

1 – 0

FULL TIME

Olimpo Bahia Blanca

PPG 1.70 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWDWL

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-029.8%0-118.8%0-25.9%0-31.2%0-4+0.2%1 1-017.3%1-110.9%1-23.4%1-30.7%1-4+0.1%2 2-05.0%2-13.2%2-21.0%2-30.2%2-4+0.0%3 3-01.0%3-10.6%3-20.2%3-30.0%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.1%4+-20.0%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 32.2% 33.3% 3.00 -3.4%

Draw 36.7% 38.2% 2.62 -3.9%

Away win 31.2% 40.8% 2.45 -23.6%

Over 2.5 34.2% 30.8% 3.25 +11.2%

Over 3.5 14.2% 15.4% 6.50 -4.6%

BTTS 42.6% 40.0% 2.50 +6.5%

Home O1.5 30.9% 25.0% 4.00 +23.6%

Away O1.5 16.9% 28.6% 3.50 -24.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 122 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 72%

BTTS 62%

Score Hit 63%

ROI 3.4%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 55%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)0.6 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob42.6%

D 37% / xG 0.6-0.6 / U2.5 34% / NoBTTS 43%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 29.8%

#2 1–0✓ 17.3%

#3 0–1 18.8%

#4 1–1 10.9%

#5 0–2 5.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Atenas0.6

Olimpo Bahia Blanca0.6

COMBINED 1.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 34.2% · O3.5 PROB 14.2%

Form & verdict PPG

ATENAS · PPG 1.60

OLIMPO BAHIA BLANCA · PPG 1.70

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.05, combined xG 1.21 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Atenas (H) 32.2%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -3.4%

Draw 36.7%

ODDS 2.62 · IMPLIED 38.2% EV -3.9%

Olimpo Bahia Blanca (A) 31.2%

ODDS 2.45 · IMPLIED 40.8% EV -23.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Atenas face Olimpo Bahia Blanca in Argentina - Torneo Federal A on Sunday, August 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Atenas a 32% chance, the draw 37% and Olimpo Bahia Blanca 31%, so a draw is the most likely result. Expected goals are 0.6 for Atenas and 0.6 for Olimpo Bahia Blanca (1.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 34% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 43% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Atenas are averaging 1.60 points per game versus 1.70 for Olimpo Bahia Blanca. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +23.6%. This match finished 1-0.

Atenas vs Olimpo Bahia Blanca Prediction— Argentina - Torneo Federal A

Match Preview & Prediction

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