Today / Argentina - Torneo Federal A / Sol de Mayo vs Guillermo Brown

Sol de Mayo vs Guillermo Brown Prediction— Argentina - Torneo Federal A

Losers Stage · Matchday 6 ·Sunday, August 30, 2026, 18:00

Sol de Mayo

PPG 1.55 · HOME

LAST 5

LLWLL

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Guillermo Brown

PPG 0.55 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWLWW

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 53.0% vs bookmaker-implied 46.5% — a clear edge.

+14.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.6%0-16.5%0-22.2%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-016.0%1-110.8%1-23.7%1-30.8%1-4+0.2%2 2-013.3%2-19.0%2-23.0%2-30.7%2-4+0.1%3 3-07.4%3-15.0%3-21.7%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-04.5%4+-13.0%4+-21.0%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.0% 46.5% 2.15 +14.0%

Draw 24.4% 34.5% 2.90 -17.5%

Away win 22.5% 31.3% 3.20 -16.8%

Over 2.5 47.2% 40.0% 2.50 +18.0%

Over 3.5 27.8% 22.2% 4.50 +15.1%

BTTS 47.2% 47.6% 2.10 -0.9%

Home O1.5 48.9% 38.2% 2.62 +28.1%

Away O1.5 18.2% 26.7% 3.75 -19.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 122 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 72%

BTTS 62%

Score Hit 63%

ROI 3.4%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 33%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob47.2%

H 53% / xG 1.7-0.7 / U2.5 47% / NoBTTS 47%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 16.0%

#2 2–0 13.3%

#3 1–1 10.8%

#4 0–0 9.6%

#5 0–1 6.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sol de Mayo1.7

Guillermo Brown0.7

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 47.2% · O3.5 PROB 27.8%

Form & verdict PPG

SOL DE MAYO · PPG 1.55

GUILLERMO BROWN · PPG 0.55

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.99 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Sol de Mayo (H) 53.0%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV +14.0%

Draw 24.4%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -17.5%

Guillermo Brown (A) 22.5%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -16.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sol de Mayo face Guillermo Brown in Argentina - Torneo Federal A on Sunday, August 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sol de Mayo a 53% chance, the draw 24% and Guillermo Brown 23%, so Sol de Mayo are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Sol de Mayo and 0.7 for Guillermo Brown (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sol de Mayo are averaging 1.55 points per game versus 0.55 for Guillermo Brown. The best value bet our model finds is RES_H/O15, with an expected value of +40.1%. This match finished 0-2.

Sol de Mayo vs Guillermo Brown Prediction— Argentina - Torneo Federal A

Match Preview & Prediction

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