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Villa Mitre vs Huracan Las Heras Prediction— Argentina - Torneo Federal A

Winners Stage · Matchday 6 ·Sunday, August 30, 2026, 18:30

Villa Mitre

PPG 1.80 · HOME

LAST 5

DLDDW

3 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Huracan Las Heras

PPG 0.70 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLLWL

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 51.3% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-025.9%0-17.2%0-21.0%0-30.1%0-4+0.0%1 1-027.8%1-17.7%1-21.1%1-30.1%1-4+0.0%2 2-014.9%2-14.1%2-20.6%2-30.1%2-4+0.0%3 3-05.3%3-11.5%3-20.2%3-30.0%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-01.8%4+-10.5%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.3% 61.7% 1.62 -16.9%

Draw 32.8% 32.3% 3.10 +1.7%

Away win 15.9% 18.2% 5.50 -7.5%

Over 2.5 28.3% 38.2% 2.62 -15.5%

Over 3.5 11.5% 20.0% 5.00 -25.5%

BTTS 31.1% 38.2% 2.62 -18.5%

Home O1.5 30.9% 45.5% 2.20 -32.0%

Away O1.5 11.1% 15.4% 6.50 -16.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 122 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 72%

BTTS 62%

Score Hit 63%

ROI 3.4%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 50%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-0

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)0.3 BTTS prob31.1%

H 51% / xG 1.1-0.3 / U2.5 28% / NoBTTS 31%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 27.8%

#2 0–0 25.9%

#3 2–0 14.9%

#4 0–1 7.2%

#5 1–1 7.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Villa Mitre1.1

Huracan Las Heras0.3

COMBINED 1.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 28.3% · O3.5 PROB 11.5%

Form & verdict PPG

VILLA MITRE · PPG 1.80

HURACAN LAS HERAS · PPG 0.70

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.79 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Villa Mitre (H) 51.3%

ODDS 1.62 · IMPLIED 61.7% EV -16.9%

Draw 32.8%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV +1.7%

Huracan Las Heras (A) 15.9%

ODDS 5.50 · IMPLIED 18.2% EV -7.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Villa Mitre face Huracan Las Heras in Argentina - Torneo Federal A on Sunday, August 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Villa Mitre a 51% chance, the draw 33% and Huracan Las Heras 16%, so Villa Mitre are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Villa Mitre and 0.3 for Huracan Las Heras (1.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 28% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 31% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Villa Mitre are averaging 1.80 points per game versus 0.70 for Huracan Las Heras. This match finished 3-0.

Villa Mitre vs Huracan Las Heras Prediction— Argentina - Torneo Federal A

Match Preview & Prediction

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