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Gimnasia Concepción vs Independiente De Chivilcoy Prediction— Argentina - Torneo Federal A

Losers Stage · Matchday 6 ·Sunday, August 30, 2026, 18:30

Gimnasia Concepción

PPG 1.64 · HOME

LAST 5

WDWWD

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Independiente De Chivilcoy

PPG 0.73 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLDWD

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 53.0% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-013.3%0-17.2%0-22.0%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-019.6%1-110.7%1-22.9%1-30.5%1-4+0.1%2 2-014.4%2-17.9%2-22.1%2-30.4%2-4+0.1%3 3-07.1%3-13.9%3-21.1%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-03.6%4+-12.0%4+-20.5%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.0% 61.7% 1.62 -14.1%

Draw 27.1% 31.3% 3.20 -8.0%

Away win 19.9% 19.0% 5.25 +2.7%

Over 2.5 39.9% 40.0% 2.50 -0.3%

Over 3.5 20.7% 22.2% 4.50 -4.1%

BTTS 43.5% 40.0% 2.50 +8.8%

Home O1.5 40.1% 47.6% 2.10 -15.8%

Away O1.5 15.1% 18.2% 5.50 -10.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 122 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 72%

BTTS 62%

Score Hit 63%

ROI 3.4%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 46%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob43.5%

H 53% / xG 1.5-0.5 / U2.5 40% / NoBTTS 44%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 19.6%

#2 0–0✓ 13.3%

#3 2–0 14.4%

#4 1–1 10.7%

#5 0–1 7.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Gimnasia Concepción1.5

Independiente De Chivilcoy0.5

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 39.9% · O3.5 PROB 20.7%

Form & verdict PPG

GIMNASIA CONCEPCIÓN · PPG 1.64

INDEPENDIENTE DE CHIVILCOY · PPG 0.73

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.93 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Gimnasia Concepción (H) 53.0%

ODDS 1.62 · IMPLIED 61.7% EV -14.1%

Draw 27.1%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -8.0%

Independiente De Chivilcoy (A) 19.9%

ODDS 5.25 · IMPLIED 19.0% EV +2.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Gimnasia Concepción face Independiente De Chivilcoy in Argentina - Torneo Federal A on Sunday, August 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Gimnasia Concepción a 53% chance, the draw 27% and Independiente De Chivilcoy 20%, so Gimnasia Concepción are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Gimnasia Concepción and 0.5 for Independiente De Chivilcoy (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 40% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 44% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Gimnasia Concepción are averaging 1.64 points per game versus 0.73 for Independiente De Chivilcoy. The best value bet our model finds is both teams to score, with an expected value of +8.8%. This match finished 0-0.

Gimnasia Concepción vs Independiente De Chivilcoy Prediction— Argentina - Torneo Federal A

Match Preview & Prediction

More Argentina - Torneo Federal A Predictions