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Erlbach vs Gundelfingen Prediction— Germany - Oberliga - Bayern Süd

Bayern Süd - 31 ·Friday, April 24, 2026, 17:30

Erlbach

PPG 1.93 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

Gundelfingen

PPG 1.77 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.3%0-112.9%0-27.4%0-32.8%0-4+1.0%1 1-011.7%1-113.4%1-27.7%1-32.9%1-4+1.1%2 2-06.1%2-16.9%2-24.0%2-31.5%2-4+0.6%3 3-02.1%3-12.4%3-21.4%3-30.5%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-10.8%4+-20.4%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 32.6% — — —

Draw 29.2% — — —

Away win 38.2% — — —

Over 2.5 37.3% — — —

Over 3.5 17.7% — — —

BTTS 44.0% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 26 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 58%

O2.5 62%

BTTS 73%

Score Hit 39%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 46%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob44.0%

D 29% / xG 1.0-1.1 / U2.5 37% / NoBTTS 44%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.4%

#2 0–1 12.9%

#3 1–0✓ 11.7%

#4 0–0 11.3%

#5 1–2 7.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Erlbach1.0

Gundelfingen1.1

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 37.3% · O3.5 PROB 17.7%

Form & verdict PPG

ERLBACH · PPG 1.93

GUNDELFINGEN · PPG 1.77

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.93), Away GOOD (1.77)

Win probability 1X2

Erlbach (H) 32.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 29.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Gundelfingen (A) 38.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Erlbach face Gundelfingen in Germany - Oberliga - Bayern Süd on Friday, April 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Erlbach a 33% chance, the draw 29% and Gundelfingen 38%, so Gundelfingen are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Erlbach and 1.1 for Gundelfingen (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 37% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 44% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Erlbach are averaging 1.93 points per game versus 1.77 for Gundelfingen. This match finished 1-0.

Erlbach vs Gundelfingen Prediction— Germany - Oberliga - Bayern Süd

Match Preview & Prediction

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