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Naestved vs HIK Prediction— Denmark - 2. Division

Matchday 2 ·Sunday, August 9, 2026, 11:00

Naestved

PPG 1.46 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

HIK

PPG 1.05 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.1 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 61.0% vs bookmaker-implied 59.9% — a real, if thin, edge.

+1.9% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.5%0-14.5%0-22.2%0-30.7%0-4+0.2%1 1-09.6%1-19.4%1-24.6%1-31.5%1-4+0.5%2 2-010.1%2-19.9%2-24.9%2-31.6%2-4+0.5%3 3-07.1%3-17.0%3-23.4%3-31.1%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-06.1%4+-16.0%4+-22.9%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 56.5% 71.4% 1.40 -20.9%

Draw 22.3% 25.0% 4.00 -6.5%

Away win 21.1% 16.7% 6.00 +16.0%

Over 2.5 61.0% 59.9% 1.67 +1.9%

Over 3.5 38.0% 38.2% 2.62 -0.4%

BTTS 54.6% 59.9% 1.67 -8.8%

Home O1.5 61.4% 65.4% 1.53 -6.1%

Away O1.5 29.4% 25.0% 4.00 +10.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 5 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 20%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 20%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 52%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob54.6%

H 56% / xG 2.1-1.0 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 9.4%

#2 2–0 10.1%

#3 2–1 9.9%

#4 1–0 9.6%

#5 3–0 7.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Naestved2.1

HIK1.0

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.0% · O3.5 PROB 38.0%

Form & verdict PPG

NAESTVED · PPG 1.46

HIK · PPG 1.05

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.12 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Naestved (H) 56.5%

ODDS 1.40 · IMPLIED 71.4% EV -20.9%

Draw 22.3%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -6.5%

HIK (A) 21.1%

ODDS 6.00 · IMPLIED 16.7% EV +16.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Naestved face HIK in Denmark - 2. Division on Sunday, August 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Naestved a 56% chance, the draw 22% and HIK 21%, so Naestved are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Naestved and 1.0 for HIK (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Naestved are averaging 1.46 points per game versus 1.05 for HIK. The best value bet our model finds is A/BTTS, with an expected value of +17.9%. This match finished 1-1.

Naestved vs HIK Prediction— Denmark - 2. Division

Match Preview & Prediction

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