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Brabrand vs Naestved Prediction— Denmark - 2. Division

Matchday 3 ·Friday, August 14, 2026, 17:00

Brabrand

PPG 1.18 · HOME

UPCOMING

Naestved

PPG 1.66 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

xG gap -0.42 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.8%0-18.3%0-27.1%0-34.1%0-4+2.6%1 1-06.3%1-110.8%1-29.4%1-35.4%1-4+3.5%2 2-04.1%2-17.1%2-26.1%2-33.5%2-4+2.3%3 3-01.8%3-13.1%3-22.7%3-31.6%3-4+1.0%4+ 4+-00.8%4+-11.4%4+-21.2%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 31.7% 29.1% 3.44 +9.0%

Draw 25.1% 28.2% 3.55 -6.5%

Away win 43.2% 52.1% 1.92 -17.1%

Over 2.5 53.7% — — —

Over 3.5 32.8% — — —

BTTS 54.5% — — —

Home O1.5 37.9% — — —

Away O1.5 47.7% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 5 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 20%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 20%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 35%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob54.5%

A 43% / xG 1.3-1.7 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.8%

#2 1–2 9.4%

#3 0–2 7.1%

#4 2–1 7.1%

#5 0–1 8.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Brabrand1.3

Naestved1.7

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.7% · O3.5 PROB 32.8%

Form & verdict PPG

BRABRAND · PPG 1.18

NAESTVED · PPG 1.66

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.42 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Brabrand (H) 31.7%

ODDS 3.44 · IMPLIED 29.1% EV +9.0%

Draw 25.1%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -6.5%

Naestved (A) 43.2%

ODDS 1.92 · IMPLIED 52.1% EV -17.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Brabrand face Naestved in Denmark - 2. Division on Friday, August 14, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Brabrand a 32% chance, the draw 25% and Naestved 43%, so Naestved are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Brabrand and 1.7 for Naestved (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Brabrand are averaging 1.18 points per game versus 1.66 for Naestved.

Brabrand vs Naestved Prediction— Denmark - 2. Division

Match Preview & Prediction

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