Today / Sweden - Division 2 - Norrland / Lucksta vs IFK Luleå

Lucksta vs IFK Luleå Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Norrland

Norrland - Promotion Round ·Sunday, August 30, 2026, 11:00

Lucksta

PPG 1.62 · HOME

LAST 5

LLLLL 

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

IFK Luleå

PPG 2.25 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLLLW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.0 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.8%0-14.3%0-25.0%0-33.9%0-4+4.1%1 1-03.0%1-17.0%1-28.3%1-36.5%1-4+6.7%2 2-02.5%2-15.8%2-26.9%2-35.4%2-4+5.6%3 3-01.4%3-13.2%3-23.8%3-33.0%3-4+3.1%4+ 4+-00.8%4+-11.9%4+-22.3%4+-31.8%4+-4+1.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 29.7% — — —

Draw 21.8% — — —

Away win 48.5% — — —

Over 2.5 68.2% — — —

Over 3.5 48.2% — — —

BTTS 63.1% — — —

Home O1.5 48.9% — — —

Away O1.5 67.8% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 50 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 60%

O2.5 72%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 26%

ROI -43.9%

Bet Hit 43%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 7.0%

#2 1–2 8.3%

#3 2–2 6.9%

#4 2–1 5.8%

#5 1–3 6.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Lucksta1.7

IFK Luleå2.4

COMBINED 4.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 68.2% · O3.5 PROB 48.2%

Form & verdict PPG

LUCKSTA · PPG 1.62

IFK LULEÅ · PPG 2.25

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

45%

DANGER

xG gap -0.70 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Lucksta (H) 29.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 21.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

IFK Luleå (A) 48.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Lucksta face IFK Luleå in Sweden - Division 2 - Norrland on Sunday, August 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Lucksta a 30% chance, the draw 22% and IFK Luleå 49%, so IFK Luleå are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Lucksta and 2.4 for IFK Luleå (4.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 68% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Lucksta are averaging 1.62 points per game versus 2.25 for IFK Luleå. This match finished 0-1.

Lucksta vs IFK Luleå Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Norrland

Match Preview & Prediction

More Sweden - Division 2 - Norrland Predictions