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Slovácko II vs Zlín II Prediction— Czech-Republic - 3. liga - MSFL

MSFL · Matchday 5 ·Sunday, August 30, 2026, 08:15

Slovácko II

PPG 1.61 · HOME

LAST 5

WLWDD

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Zlín II

PPG 1.11 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWLDD

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 59.9% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.9%0-16.3%0-24.1%0-31.8%0-4+0.8%1 1-08.4%1-110.9%1-27.0%1-33.0%1-4+1.3%2 2-07.3%2-19.4%2-26.1%2-32.6%2-4+1.1%3 3-04.2%3-15.4%3-23.5%3-31.5%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-02.7%4+-13.4%4+-22.2%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.4% 58.8% 1.70 -21.1%

Draw 24.3% 27.0% 3.70 -6.0%

Away win 29.3% 26.3% 3.80 +6.8%

Over 2.5 59.7% 66.7% 1.50 -10.4%

Over 3.5 36.7% 43.5% 2.30 -15.6%

BTTS 59.9% 66.7% 1.50 -10.2%

Home O1.5 48.9% 61.3% 1.63 -20.3%

Away O1.5 36.8% 38.3% 2.61 -4.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 30 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 60%

O2.5 63%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 50%

ROI 35.9%

Bet Hit 88%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 49%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob59.9%

H 46% / xG 1.7-1.3 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 10.9%

#2 2–1 9.4%

#3 1–2 7.0%

#4 2–0 7.3%

#5 1–0 8.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Slovácko II1.7

Zlín II1.3

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.7% · O3.5 PROB 36.7%

Form & verdict PPG

SLOVÁCKO II · PPG 1.61

ZLÍN II · PPG 1.11

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.43 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Slovácko II (H) 46.4%

ODDS 1.70 · IMPLIED 58.8% EV -21.1%

Draw 24.3%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -6.0%

Zlín II (A) 29.3%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV +6.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Slovácko II face Zlín II in Czech-Republic - 3. liga - MSFL on Sunday, August 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Slovácko II a 46% chance, the draw 24% and Zlín II 29%, so Slovácko II are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Slovácko II and 1.3 for Zlín II (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Slovácko II are averaging 1.61 points per game versus 1.11 for Zlín II. The best value bet our model finds is RES_A/O15, with an expected value of +9.9%. This match finished 1-1.

Slovácko II vs Zlín II Prediction— Czech-Republic - 3. liga - MSFL

Match Preview & Prediction

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